Trade Analysis

ICRA predicts that Indian GDP growth would increase from Q3’s 4.4% to 4.5-5% in Q4 FY23.

Published: March 27, 2023

According to rating agency ICRA, a healthy increase in rabi (winter) crop output, a pick-up in year-over-year (YoY) growth of high-frequency indicators in January and February, strong service demand, and a moderation in commodity prices are expected to boost India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 4.5–5% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022–23 (Q4 FY23) from 4.4% in Q3.

ICRA predicts that the GDP growth would slow to 6% in FY24 from the projected 6.9% in FY23. In comparison to the 9.9% growth experienced in Q3 FY23, the ICRA business activity monitor reported a better YoY expansion of 11.7% in January–February FY23.

Notwithstanding the fact that the index was 15.3 percentage points higher than pre-COVID values in January-February 2020 Compared to the 18.2 percent growth experienced in Q3 FY23, this expansion was less than 1%.

ICRA anticipates two major risks that could prevent the consumption increase. The first is a result of persistently high inflation. Second, crop damage caused by a heat wave, excessive rainfall outside of the season, or a monsoon drought might potentially have an impact on farm revenues and rural spending.


















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