CAI MAINTAINS ITS COTTON CROP ESTIMATE FOR 2018-19 SEASON AT 312 LAKH BALES

Cotton Association of India (CAI) has released its July estimate of the cotton crop for the ongoing season 2018-19 beginning from 1^st October 2018. CAI has retained its cotton crop estimate for 2018-19 at 312 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each i.e. at the same level as in the previous estimate. A statement containing the State-wise estimate of the cotton crop and the balance sheet as on 30^th September 2019 drawn by the Crop Committee of the CAI with the corresponding data for 2017-18 crop year is enclosed.

 

The CAI has maintained its cotton crop estimate for the Northern Zone at the same level as in its previous month’s estimate i.e. at 59 lakh bales while cotton crop estimate for the Central Zone has been increased by 50000 bales. There is an increase of 1 lakh bales in the cotton crop for Gujarat state i.e. 87 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each compared to the cotton crop estimate of 86 lakh bales made by the CAI during last month while there is a reduction of 50000 bales in the cotton crop estimate of Maharashtra State i.e. 70.50 lakh bales compared to 71 lakh bales estimated by the CAI during last month.  Also, there is a reduction of 50000 bales in the cotton crop estimate of the CAI for Tamil Nadu State compared to the previous month’s estimate.

 

The total cotton supply estimated by the CAI during the period from October 2018 to July 2019 is 353.80 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each which consists of the arrivals of 305.52 lakh bales upto 31^st July 2019, imports of 15.28 lakh bales upto 31^st July 2019 and the opening stock estimated by the CAI at 33 lakh bales at the beginning of the season.

 

Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption during the months of October 2018 to July 2019 at 263.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each while the export shipment of cotton estimated by the CAI upto 31^st July  2019 is 44.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each. Stock at the end of July 2019 is estimated by the CAI at 45.80 lakh bales including 25.86 lakh bales with textile mills and remaining 19.94 lakh bales with CCI and others (MNCs, Traders, Ginners, etc.).

The yearly Balance Sheet projected by the CAI estimated total cotton supply till end of the cotton season i.e. upto 30^th September 2019 at 376 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each consisting of the Opening Stock of 33 lakh bales at the beginning of the cotton season and imports estimated by the CAI at 31 lakh bales, which are higher by 16 lakh bales compared to the previous year’s estimate at 15 lakh bales.

 

Domestic consumption estimated by the CAI for the entire crop year i.e. upto 30^th September 2019 is 315 lakh bales while the CAI has estimated exports for the season at 46 lakh bales, which are lower by 23 lakh bales compared to the previous year’s cotton exports estimate of 69 lakh bales. The carryover stock estimated at the end of the season is 15 lakh bales.

 

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HIGHLIGHTS OF DELIBERATIONS HELD AT THE MEETING OF THE CROP COMMITTEE OF COTTON ASSOCIATION OF INDIA ON 8^TH AUGUST 2019

 

Crop Committee of Cotton Association of India (CAI) met on 8^th August 2019. 12 members were present. Based on the data available from various trade sources, upcountry associations and other stakeholders, the Committee arrived at its July estimate of the cotton crop for the 2018-19 season beginning on 1^st October 2018 and drew estimated cotton balance sheet.

 

The following are the highlights of deliberations at the said meeting:-

 

1. The cotton crop estimate for the season 2018-19 is retained by the CAI at 312 lakh bales i.e. at the same level as estimated by it in the previous month.

 

2. There is no change in the projection of cotton export for the season and the same is retained at 46 lakh bales as estimated by the CAI previously.

 

3. There is no change in the projection of import of cotton and the same is also retained at 31 lakh bales as estimated by the CAI previously.

 

4. The yearly consumption estimated by the CAI is also retained at the same level as in the previous month i.e. at 315 lakh bales.

 

5. Indian cotton arrivals during the months of October 2018 to July 2019 are estimated at 305.52 lakh bales.  Around 98% of the total crop for the ongoing season has already arrived in the market.

 

6. Shipment of imports from 1^st October 2018 to 31^st July 2019 which have reached Indian Ports are estimated at 15.28 lakh bales while balance 15.72 lakh bales are estimated to arrive Indian Ports during the period from 1^st August 2019 to 30^th September 2019 (total imports estimated during the entire season are 31 lakh bales).

 

7. Cotton export shipments from 1st October 2018 to 31^st July 2019 which have already been shipped are estimated at 44.50 lakh bales while balance 1.50 lakh bales are expected to be shipped during the period from 1^st August 2019 to 30^th September 2019 (total exports estimated during the entire season are 46 lakh bales).

 

8. Consumption by Indian spinning mills for 10 months i.e. from 1^st October 2018 to 31^st July 2019 is estimated at 263.50 lakh bales.

 

9. Cotton stock held by mills in their godowns on 31^st July 2019 is estimated at 25.86 lakh bales.

 

10. CCI, MNCs, Ginners and MCX are estimated to have stock of 19.94 lakh bales as on 31^st July 2019 which is equal to about 21 lakh running bales.

 

11. Thus, total stock held by spinning mills and stockists on 31^st July 2019 is estimated at 45.80 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each which is equal to about 49 lakh bales.

 

12. Due to small crop size and very tight cotton balance sheet, stock as on 30^th September 2019 is estimated by the Committee at 15 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each.