Cotton Association of India (CAI) has released its May estimate of the cotton crop for the season 2021-22 beginning from 1st October 2021. The CAI has further reduced its cotton crop estimate for the 2021-22 season by 8.31 lakh bales to 315.32 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (i.e. 335.03 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) from its previous estimate of 323.63 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 343.86 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The state-wise break-up of the Cotton Production and Balance Sheet for the season with the corresponding data for the previous crop year are enclosed.
The total cotton supply for the months of October 2021 to May 2022 is now estimated by the CAI at 367.22 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 390.17 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each), which consists of the arrivals of 288.38 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 306.40 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each), imports of 7 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 7.44 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) and the opening stock now estimated by the CAI at 71.84 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 76.33 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) at the beginning of the season. The CAI has adopted the opening stock for the season at 71.84 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 76.33 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) i.e. at the same level as finalised by the Committee on Cotton Production and Consumption (COCPC) at its recent meeting held on 23rd May 2022 by making one-time downward revision of 3.16 lakh bales of 170 kgs each in its earlier opening stock estimate of 75 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 79.69 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption for the months of October 2021 to May 2022 at 225 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 239.06 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) while the export shipments upto 31st May 2022 are estimated by the CAI at 38 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 40.38 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). Stock at the end of May 2022 is estimated at 104.22 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 110.73 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) including 70 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 74.38 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) with textile mills and the remaining 34.22 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 36.36 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) with the CCI, Maharashtra Federation and others (MNCs, traders, ginners, MCX, etc. including the cotton sold but not delivered).
The CAI Crop Committee has estimated the total cotton supply till end of the cotton season 2021-22 i.e. upto 30th September 2022 at 402.16 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 427.30 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) which is less by 11.47 lakh bales compared to 413.63 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 439.48 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) estimated by the CAI previously. The total cotton supply consists of the opening stock of 71.84 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 76.33 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) at the beginning of the cotton season on 1st October 2021, crop for the season estimated at 315.32 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 335.03 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) as against the previous estimate of 323.63 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 343.86 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) and the imports for the Season estimated at 15 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 15.94 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) that is at the same level as estimated previously as against the previous year’s import estimates of 10 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 10.63 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
The domestic consumption is now estimated by the CAI at 315 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 334.69 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) as against 320 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 340 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) estimated previously. The exports for the season have been estimated at 40 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 42.50 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The exports estimate for the previous cotton season 2020-21 was of 78 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 82.88 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The carry-over stock which was earlier estimated at 53.63 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 56.98 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) is now estimated at 47.16 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 50.11 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
HIGHLIGHTS OF DELIBERATIONS HELD BY THE CAI CROP COMMITTEE ON 16TH JUNE 2022
The Crop Committee of the Cotton Association of India (CAI) held its physical meeting on Thursday, the 16th June 2022, which was attended by 10 members representing various cotton growing regions of the country. The Committee arrived at its May estimate of the cotton crop for the 2021-22 season and drew the estimated cotton balance sheet based on the data available from various trade sources, upcountry associations and other stakeholders.
The following are the highlights of the deliberations held at this meeting:-
- CONSUMPTION
The CAI has reduced its consumption estimate for the current crop year 2021-22 at 315 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 334.69 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) as against its previous consumption estimate of 320 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 340 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The previous year’s consumption estimate was 338.16 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 359.30 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
Upto 31st May 2022, the consumption is estimated at 225 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 239.06 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
2. PRODUCTION
The CAI has reduced its production estimate for the season 2021-22 to 315.32 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 335.03 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) from its previous estimate of 323.63 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 343.86 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) made earlier. The changes made in the state-wise cotton production estimates compared to those estimated during the last month are given below:-
In lakh bales of 170 kgs. each
| States | Reduction (-) /Increase (+) |
| Upper Rajasthan | +1.00 |
| Lower Rajasthan | -1.00 |
| Gujarat | -4.24 |
| Maharashtra | -2.46 |
| Madhya Pradesh | +1.00 |
| Telangana | -2.51 |
| Andhra Pradesh | +0.70 |
| Karnataka | -0.80 |
| Total | – 8.31 |
This production estimate includes Tamil Nadu summer crop which will arrive in the months of June, July and August and it also includes the new crop which will arrive in August and September.
The Committee members will have a close watch on the cotton arrivals in the subsequent months and if any addition or reduction is required to be made in the production estimate, the same will be made in the CAI reports.
3. IMPORTS
The estimate of cotton Imports into India has been maintained at 15 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 15.94 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The imports estimated for the 2021-22 crop year are more by 5.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 5.31 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) compared to the imports estimate of 10 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 10.63 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) for the previous crop year 2020-21.
Upto 31st May 2022 about 7 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 7.44 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) are estimated to have arrived the Indian Ports.
4. EXPORTS
The Committee has maintained its cotton exports estimate to 40 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 42.50 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) as estimated previously.
Upto 31st May 2022, about 38 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 40.38 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) are estimated to have been shipped.
5. ARRIVALS
Indian cotton arrivals during the months of October 2021 to May 2022 are estimated at 288.38 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 306.40 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). Upto 31st May 2022, over 91% of Indian cotton arrivals are over. According to the CAI records for the cotton seasons 2017-18 to 2019-20, 9.80 % of total crop arrivals are coming during the period of 1st June to 30th September. This includes current season as well as the new crop arrivals of August and September. Considering this, around 30 lakh bales + 5 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each are expected to arrive.
STOCK AS ON 31ST MAY 2022
The cotton stocks held by mills in their godowns on 31st May 2022 are estimated at 70 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 74.38 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The mills have on an average 81 days’ cotton stock in their godowns.
The CCI, Maharashtra Federation, MNCs, Ginners, Traders, MCX, etc. are estimated to have a total stock of about 34.22 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 36.36 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) as on 31st May 2022.
Thus, the total stock held by spinning mills and stockists including the stock of cotton sold but not delivered on 31st May 2022 is estimated at 104.22 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 110.73 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
6. CLOSING STOCK AS ON 30TH SEPTEMBER 2022
Closing stock as on 30th September 2022 is estimated by the Committee at 47.16 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 50.11 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
