Barclays India has projected that India’s exports will surge by approximately 12 per cent annually, reaching $1.6 trillion by 2030. This would result in a global export share of around 4 per cent, indicating a substantial growth trajectory. India has set a target to achieve $2 trillion in exports by 2030, giving the country a global export share of 4.7 per cent. To attain this goal, India’s exports must grow by 15 per cent per year in dollar terms.
Barclays suggests that India’s economic policy could undergo a reset, with the government focusing on accelerated growth after next year’s election. This new approach may prioritise industrialisation, increased manufacturing and exports, and a larger market share in services. The manufacturing sector, in particular, is expected to experience significant support, and India will aim to move up the value chain while diversifying its goods exports. However, the country’s reliance on imports in this area poses a challenge that needs to be addressed.
The global effort to establish more resilient supply chains post-pandemic is a favourable factor for Indian exports. India can increase its market share by adopting a “China + 1” strategy. However, the country must overcome logistical bottlenecks and enhance execution to utilise this opportunity fully.
India’s services sector, backed by a highly competitive talent pool, is expected to maintain strong export levels. The country’s external stability will heavily rely on the robust performance of this sector. Additionally, the government has initiated bilateral Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) to secure a larger market share amidst shifting global trade patterns. Furthermore, the export of labour could boost remittances.
Despite these positive developments, the strategy faces challenges such as weak global growth, disruptions in global supply chains, and increasing protectionism. These factors may hinder the expansion of India’s trade potential in the medium term.
In conclusion, Barclays India’s forecast highlights the potential for India to significantly expand its export market share and achieve substantial economic growth through a strategic focus on manufacturing, services, and bilateral FTAs. However, it also emphasises the need to address critical dependencies and overcome obstacles to capitalise on available opportunities fully.
