USDA Projects 3% Rise in India Cotton Acreage for 2026-27

The US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service has projected an increase in India’s cotton acreage and production for the 2026-27 marketing season. The outlook reflects improved yields and expectations of a normal monsoon following weather-related disruptions in the previous year.

The US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service has estimated India’s cotton cultivation area for the 2026-27 marketing season at 11.5 million hectares, marking a 3% increase compared to the previous year. Cotton production is projected at 25.2 million bales of 480 pounds each, reflecting a 7% year-on-year rise.

In the previous marketing season, the agency had estimated India’s cotton output at 23.8 million bales, which was 4% higher than the government’s estimate of 22.8 million bales. According to a note released by the agency, yields are expected to improve by 3% to 477 kilograms per hectare, supported by recovery from last year’s untimely heavy rains and expectations of a normal monsoon.

India’s cotton consumption is projected to increase by 3% to 25.8 million tonnes in 2026-27. "The increase is supported by India signing key free trade agreements, which are expected to take effect by the next season. In addition, rising U.S. demand for Indian cotton apparels and textiles is projected to drive monthly double-digit growth in exports during 2026–27," the report said, quoting industry sources.

Cotton exports from India are forecast at 1.2 million bales in 2026-27, around 20% lower compared to the previous year. "The decline is driven by a reduced exportable surplus due to strong domestic procurement, higher domestic consumption, and an increased focus on exporting value-added products."

The report noted that continued depreciation of the rupee could create opportunities for increased exports of cotton and cotton products. However, it also highlighted concerns regarding inflation amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, with rising crude oil prices expected to increase freight and insurance costs. "Although supplies may not be directly disrupted, shipping companies are likely to charge higher war-risk premiums, further raising import costs."

Cotton imports are projected to decline by 25% year-on-year to 3 million bales. "With the reinstatement of the 11% raw cotton import duty on long staple variety in January 2026, the government aims to protect domestic producers and stabilize local prices. Combined with the weakening rupee, higher freight and insurance costs, and slowed vessel movements, the policy has further constrained raw cotton imports, resulting in higher input costs for mills and limited access to cheaper foreign cotton," the report said.

Textile exporters have called for an extension of the duty-free import period to address the requirement for sourcing high-quality fibre. Despite this, mills are expected to continue using imports to supplement limited domestic availability of machine-picked, contamination-free cotton through duty-free provisions under the advance license scheme.

In 2025-26, Australia, Brazil, and the US were identified as the top three suppliers of cotton to India.