Textile Futures 2040: Four Scenarios Explore How the Global Textile Industry Could Evolve
Forum for the Future and H&M Foundation introduce a foresight initiative examining four possible futures shaped by corporate consolidation, shifting economic power, local circular economies and artificial intelligence, helping textile businesses prepare for long-term climate and industry changes.
Forum for the Future and the non-profit H&M Foundation have launched Textile Futures 2040, an initiative presenting four possible scenarios for the global textile industry's future. Based on emerging trends, expert insights and stakeholder consultations, the scenarios examine how changing business models, technology, consumption patterns and supply chains could reshape the industry by 2040. The initiative aims to help organisations assess their strategies and make informed decisions towards a just transition and climate objectives such as net zero.
Textile Industry Faces Changing Economic and Environmental Priorities
The textile industry accounts for around one in eight workers worldwide, making it a significant source of global employment. At the same time, companies across the value chain are increasingly committing to climate action. According to the announcement, 88% of brands reporting to Textile Exchange now have formal targets.
However, the industry's transition towards climate, nature and social objectives will take place amid changing economic conditions, geopolitical developments, regulatory requirements and evolving social expectations. Emerging technologies and new business models are also expected to influence how textile businesses operate.
Against this backdrop, Textile Futures 2040 uses foresight to examine multiple possible outcomes rather than relying on a single prediction. The initiative explores four scenarios based on different developments and decisions that could shape the industry over the coming years.
The project builds on Forum for the Future's earlier fashion-focused scenario work, which began with Fashion Futures 2030 in 2010.
Four Scenarios for the Textile Industry in 2040
Each scenario presents a different vision of the textile industry's future. The initiative also includes a day-in-the-life narrative and a textile artefact developed through speculative design to illustrate how people and businesses might operate in each future.
1. New Age Corporate Empire
In this scenario, corporations gain greater influence than governments, while manufacturers take on stronger roles within the global economy. Technology improves operational efficiency, but growing inequality and the prioritisation of profits over decarbonisation remain key challenges.
Everyday clothing becomes more durable and climate-adaptive, while digital layers increasingly influence personal style.
2. Power Shift
Economic and cultural influence moves towards Asia, where state-backed innovation, improved labour conditions and rising consumption reshape the textile sector.
The scenario also explores the increasing value of handmade craftsmanship, with consumers able to trace the people involved in making their garments.
3. Global Storms, Local Shields
Climate and resource pressures disrupt global supply chains, encouraging communities to rely more heavily on local manufacturing, repair and reuse.
Greater self-sufficiency becomes a priority, while circular economy activities emerge as the industry's largest source of growth. Repair professionals also become increasingly important within local production systems.
4. The New Noosphere
Artificial intelligence plays a central role in accelerating decarbonisation and supporting nature restoration. However, algorithms also gain greater influence over production decisions, resource allocation and everyday life.
Recycled fibres become the primary raw material input in this scenario, while some garments are designed to be planted.
Stakeholder Consultations Shape the Scenarios
The Textile Futures 2040 initiative draws on expert interviews, focus groups and scenario-testing workshops involving more than 60 stakeholders.
Participants included representatives from global and local brands, manufacturers, trade unions, labour rights organisations, futurists, designers, foundations, academics and students.
Bhajinder Kaur, Founder of purpose-driven luxury womenswear brand Wolf & Byrd, shared the following observation from the consultations:
"A more sustainable and resilient fashion and textile industry cannot be built by individual businesses working in isolation. By exploring possible futures together, we can identify opportunities, challenge existing practices, and develop more thoughtful solutions that benefit both people and the planet."
Toolkit Available for Industry Organisations
Alongside the four scenarios, the initiative provides an openly available toolkit containing workshop materials. Organisations can use these resources to conduct their own sessions and assess existing strategies, investments and business decisions against the different possible futures.
Forum for the Future and H&M Foundation are encouraging organisations across the textile value chain to use the scenarios to examine potential industry developments and identify decisions that remain relevant across different future conditions.
The initiative's central message is that although the industry's exact direction in 2040 remains uncertain, decisions made today will influence its future structure, environmental impact and social outcomes.
Supporting Better-Informed Decisions Towards Net Zero
The project highlights the importance of examining long-term industry changes while considering climate objectives, livelihoods and nature together.
By exploring different possibilities for technology adoption, supply chain structures, manufacturing and consumption, Textile Futures 2040 aims to help industry participants challenge existing assumptions and prepare strategies for a changing global textile landscape.
As the initiative emphasises, preparing for 2040 requires decisions that account for multiple possible futures rather than depending on a single expected outcome.