A comprehensive analysis of 24 scenarios across 15 reports identifies biomass, CCU and recycling as the cornerstone of the chemical industry’s feedstock in 2050
Hürth, 19. November 2024
A ground-breaking analysis titled “Evaluation of Recent Reports on the Future of a Net-Zero Chemical Industry in 2050” was compiled by experts at nova-Institute on behalf of the Renewable Carbon Initiative (RCI). This report offers a rigorous evaluation of net-zero visions for the chemical and plastics industries, building on RCI’s groundbreaking work in introducing the ideas of renewable carbon and defossilization.
With an emphasis on overall growth and renewable carbon sharing, the recently published paper assesses existing research with net-zero 2050 visions and scenarios for chemicals or plastics. The respective contributions of non-fossil feedstocks and pathways predicted for 2050 were assessed in 15 studies, totaling 24 scenarios, following thorough quality assessments of the papers that were accessible.
Key Findings
Industry Growth Projections
Most global scenarios predict that the chemical industry’s production will continue to increase. The global feedstock demand for the chemical or plastics sector is expected to expand at an average yearly rate of 2.9% (range 2%-4%). Compared to the 3-4% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) seen in prior decades, this suggests a minor slowdown. The degree to which efficiency improvements along the value chain will counteract this development is the subject of conflicting studies. In total, this corresponds to about 2.4-
fold increase in global feedstock demand from the chemical industry by 2050 compared to 2020 levels. Notably, growth patterns show significant geographical differences:
- Most of the growth is expected to take place outside of Europe,
- Feedstock volumes in Europe are predicted to remain stable through 2050
Renewable Carbon Shares
The analysis reveals a clear trend toward defossilisation. All scenarios include biomass and recycling as possible alternatives to replace fossil carbon, while two thirds also include carbon capture and storage (CCU). A complete defossilisation is considered in 10 of the 24 scenarios. The remaining studies expect a residual share of fossil carbon feedstocks, and in those cases combine these processes with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS).
For the entire chemical sector, the average feedstock shares of 16 scenarios across 9 reports are 22% biomass, 33% CCU, 20% recycling and 24% fossil & CCS (see Fig. 1)
Figure 1: Mean feedstock shares derived from recent scenarios for the 2050 net-zero chemical industry.
For the plastics sector, 10 scenarios across 7 reports project shares of: 21% biomass, 17% CCU, 42% recycling and 19% fossil & CCS (see Fig. 2). Not surprisingly, the recycling rate for plastics is more than twice that of the chemicals sector as a whole. Plastics are easier to recycle and keep in circulation than other chemical products.
Figure 2: Mean feedstock shares derived from recent scenarios for the 2050 net-zero plastics sector.
Implications for the Future
Despite variations in modelling approaches, assumptions and scope, the results of the studies agree on a common vision: in a net-zero future, the chemical industry’s feedstock shifts dramatically away from fossil feedstocks. Biomass, CCU and recycling are consistently identified as the pillars of this transition and beyond, with recycled feedstock projected as the main source of carbon for plastics production (see Figures 1 and 2).
While uncertainties remain about the volume of chemical recycling due to current low technology readiness levels, the results clearly show that maximising carbon recovery and circularity of carbon can only be achieved by including and scaling chemical recycling.
This report provides invaluable insights for industry leaders, policymakers, and researchers working towards a net-zero future in the chemical sector. It highlights the urgent need for continued innovation and investment in renewable carbon technologies to meet the ambitious goals set for 2050.
