Cotton Association of India (CAI) has released its July estimate of the cotton crop for the season 2020-21 beginning from 1st October 2020. CAI has reduced its July estimate of the cotton crop for 2020-21 by 1.50 lakh bales to 354.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 376.66 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) from its previous estimate of 356 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 378.25 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
A statement containing the State-wise estimate of the cotton crop and the balance sheet for the cotton season 2020-21 with the corresponding data for 2019-20 crop year are enclosed. Also given below are the highlights of the deliberations of the virtual meeting of the Statistics Committee of the CAI which was held on 11th August 2021 and was attended by 25 members including Upcountry Cotton Trade Associations representing all cotton growing States.
The CAI has maintained its cotton crop estimate for the Northern Zone at the same level as in its previous month’s estimate i.e. at 65.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 69.59 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The cotton crop estimate for the Central Zone has been reduced by 0.50 lakh bales to 193.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 205.59 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) from 194 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 206.13 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) estimated during the last month.
There is a reduction of 2.50 lakh bales in the crop estimate for Gujarat state while the crop estimates of Maharashtra & Madhya Pradesh have been increased by 1.50 lakh bales and 0.50 lakh bales respectively compared to the estimates of these states made in the previous month.
The cotton crop estimate for Southern Zone has been reduced by 1.00 lakh bales to 90.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (i.e. 96.16 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) compared to the previous estimate of 91.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (i.e. 97.22 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) made during the last month. The cotton crop for Telangana is estimated lower by 1.00 lakh bales whereas the cotton crop estimates for the states of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka & Tamil Nadu have been maintained at the same levels as estimated previously. Also there is no change in the cotton crop estimate for Orissa.
The total cotton supply estimated by the CAI during the period from October 2020 to July 2021 is 482.61 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 512.77 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). This consists of the arrivals of 348.61 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each upto 31st July 2021 (equivalent to 370.40 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each), imports of 9.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 9.56 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) upto 31st July 2021 and the opening stock at the beginning of the season on 1st October 2020 at 125 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 132.81 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption during the months of October 2020 to July 2021 at 275 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 292.19 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) while the export shipment of cotton upto 31st July 2021 is estimated at 70.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 74.38 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
Stock at the end of July 2021 is estimated by the CAI at 137.61 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 146.21 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) including 80.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (i.e. 85 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) with textile mills and remaining 57.61 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 61.21 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) with CCI, Maharashtra Federation and others (MNCs, Traders, Ginners, etc.).
The yearly Balance Sheet projected by the CAI estimates total cotton supply till end of the cotton season i.e. upto 30th September 2021 at 489.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 520.09 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) consisting of the Opening Stock of 125 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (i.e. 132.81 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) at the beginning of the cotton season, cotton crop for the season at 354.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 376.66 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) and imports estimated by the CAI at 10 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 10.63 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each), which are lower by 5.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 5.84 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) from the previous year’s import estimated at 15.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 16.47 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
Domestic consumption for the entire crop year i.e. upto 30th September 2021 is now estimated higher by 5 lakh bales to 330 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 350.63 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) considering the brisk demand for cotton yarn despite disruptions caused by lockdown to arrest spread of the second wave of COVID-19.
The CAI has also increased the exports estimate for the season from its previous estimate of 72 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 76.50 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) to 77 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 81.81 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) based on the feedback received from exporter members.
This export estimate is higher by 27 lakh bales from the previous year’s cotton exports estimate of 50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 53.13 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The carryover stock at the end of the season i.e. on 30th September 2021 is now estimated at 82.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 87.66 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
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HIGHLIGHTS OF DELIBERATIONS HELD AT THE VIRTUAL MEETING OF THE STATISTICS COMMITTEE OF COTTON ASSOCIATION OF INDIA ON WEDNESDAY, THE 11TH AUGUST 2021
The Crop Committee of the Cotton Association of India (CAI) held its meeting on 11th August 2021, which was attended by in all 25 members representing all cotton producing states and stakeholders. The Committee arrived at the July estimate of the cotton crop for the 2020-21 crop year and drawn the estimated cotton balance sheet based on the data available from various trade sources, upcountry associations and other stakeholders.
The following are the highlights of the deliberations held at this meeting: –
- CONSUMPTION
The CAI has increased its consumption estimate for the current crop year by 5 lakh bales to 330 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 350.63 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) from its previous estimate of 325 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 345.31 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The Committee has made this revision considering the brisk demand for cotton yarn despite disruptions caused on account of the lockdown implemented to arrest the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in the country.
The consumption now estimated for the current crop year is higher by 80 lakh bales compared to the previous year’s consumption estimate of 250 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 265.63 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). Upto 31st July 2021, the consumption is estimated at 275 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 292.19 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
- PRODUCTION
The CAI has reduced its production estimate for the season 2020-21 to 354.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 376.66 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) from its previous estimate of 356 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 378.25 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) made during the last month. The Committee members will have a close watch on the cotton arrivals in the months of August and September and if any addition or reduction is required to be made in the production estimate, the same will be made in the CAI reports.
- IMPORTS
The estimate of cotton imports into India has been retained at the same level of 10 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 10.63 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) as estimated during the last month. The cotton import estimate made now is lower by 5.50 lakh bales from that estimated for the 2019-20 crop year. Upto 31st July 2021, about 9.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 9.56 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) are estimated to have been arrived the Indian Ports.
- EXPORTS
The estimate of cotton exports for the 2020-21 crop year has been increased by 5 lakh bales to 77 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 81.81 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) based on the input received from exporter-members. Upto 31st July 2021, about 70 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 74.38 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) are estimated to have been shipped.
- ARRIVALS
Indian cotton arrivals during the months of October 2020 to July 2021 are estimated at 348.61 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 370.40 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
- STOCK AS ON 31STJULY 2021
The cotton stocks held by mills in their godowns on 31st July 2021 are estimated at 80 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 85 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The mills have on an average 87 days’ cotton stock in their godowns.
The CCI, Maharashtra Federation, MNCs, Ginners, Traders, MCX, etc. are estimated to have a total stock of about 57.61 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 61.21 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) as on 31st July 2021.
Thus, the total stock held by spinning mills and stockists including the stock of cotton sold but not delivered on 31st July 2021 is estimated at 137.61 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 146.21 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
CLOSING STOCK AS ON 30TH SEPTEMBER 2021
Closing stock as on 30th September 2021 is estimated by the Committee at 82.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 87.66 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
