The Indian textile industry faces a significant setback with the Cotton Association of India (CAI) predicting a sharp 36.53% decline in cotton exports during the 2024-25 season. This downturn is primarily attributed to a substantial drop in domestic cotton production, a consequence of reduced acreage in key growing regions like North India (Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan) and Gujarat.
The CAI estimates total exports for the current season (commencing October 1st) at 18 lakh bales, a stark contrast to the 28.36 lakh bales exported in the previous year. The diminished acreage, a decline of 35% in North India and 15% in Gujarat is expected to exert stabilizing pressure on domestic cotton prices relative to the global market.
The overall cotton pressing for the 2023-24 season is projected at 302.25 lakh bales, a notable decrease from the preceding year’s 327.45 lakh bales.
As of November 2024, the total cotton supply is estimated at 108.41 lakh bales, encompassing 69.22 lakh bales from the current pressing season, 9 lakh bales of imports, and an opening stock of 30.19 lakh bales.
The CAI further estimates that 54 lakh bales of cotton have been consumed domestically, while 4 lakh bales have been shipped for export by November 30th. Consequently, the estimated stock at the end of November stands at 50.41 lakh bales.
This significant decline in cotton exports is poised to have a ripple effect across the Indian textile industry, impacting various sectors including spinning, weaving, and garment manufacturing. The reduced availability of domestic cotton could lead to increased reliance on imports, potentially impacting production costs and competitiveness in the global market.
