Key Highlights:
- Global growth is expected to remain largely stable at 3.2% in 2024 and 2025, slightly below pre-pandemic levels.
- Financial market volatility and geopolitical & trade uncertainties may pose challenges to growth.
- Services demand remains healthy, while manufacturing lags, as reflected by global PMIs.
- Global inflation is declining but is projected to remain above pre-pandemic levels in advanced economies.
- Globally, monetary policy easing is underway, but fewer Fed rate cuts are now expected due to potential inflationary policies under Trump 2.0.
- The US dollar index has surged by 7.8% in the past three months, pressuring emerging market currencies.
- Global public debt is projected to reach ~99% of GDP by 2029.
- US gross general government debt (~121% of GDP in 2024) and interest expenses have surged compared to pre-COVID levels.
- China faces a structural slowdown compounded by geopolitical challenges.
- India’s growth is set to moderate in FY25 but will remain the fastest growing economy.
- Growth is slowing in western Europe, while PIGS economies are seeing a resurgence.
- Africa region growth is projected to pick up modestly, though unevenly, amidst other macroeconomic challenges.
