The growth in India’s real gross domestic product (GDP) during fiscal 2020-21 is estimated at minus 7.7 per cent compared to 4.2 per cent in the previous fiscal, the government disclosed recently as part of its first advance estimates of economic growth. Real GDP or GDP at constant prices (2011-12) in 2020-21 is likely to reach ₹134.40 lakh crore. The provisional real GDP estimate for fiscal 2019-20 was ₹145.66 lakh crore.
Real gross value added (GVA) at basic prices is estimated at ₹123.39 lakh crore in fiscal 2020-21, as against ₹133.01 lakh crore in 2019-20, showing a contraction of 7.2 per cent.
Nominal GDP or GDP at current prices in the year 2020-21 is likely to attain a level of ₹194.82 lakh crore, as against the provisional nominal GDP estimate for 2019-20 of ₹ 203.40 lakh crore.
The growth in nominal GDP during 2020-21 is estimated at minus 4.2 per cent. Nominal GVA at basic prices is estimated at ₹175.77 lakh crore in 2020-21, as against ₹183.43 lakh crore in 2019-20, showing a contraction of 4.2 per cent.
As per the first advanced estimates of the national income released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), there was contraction in almost all sectors with the exception of agriculture.
In the current fiscal, manufacturing sector is likely to see a contraction 9.4 per cent whereas growth was almost flat at 0.03 per cent in the year-ago period.
The NSO estimates significant contraction in ‘mining and quarrying’, and ‘trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting’.
Agriculture sector is estimated to see a growth of 3.4 per cent in 2020-21. However, it will be lower than 4 per cent growth recorded in 2019-20.
While agriculture sector is projected to grow at 3.4 per cent in 2020-21, manufacturing sector is estimated to contract by 9.4 per cent while electricity is likely to grow at 2.7 per cent.
“With a view to contain spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, certain restrictions were imposed from 25 March, 2020. Though the restrictions have been gradually lifted, there has been an impact on the economic activities as well as on the data collection mechanisms. Estimates are therefore likely to undergo sharp revisions for the aforesaid causes in due course, as per the release calendar. Users should take this into consideration when interpreting the figures. The release of Second Advance Estimates of National Income for the year 2020-21 and quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter October-December, 2020 (Q3 of 2020-21) will be on 26.02.2021,” said ministry of statistics and programme implementation in an official release.
The pandemic and stringent lockdown measures imposed by India in the early stages hit India hard. Asia’s third largest economy recorded its first-ever recession with a contraction of 23.9 per cent in the April-June quarter and a 7.5 per cent fall in the September quarter.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) last month projected the Indian economy to contract 7.5 per cent in fiscal 2020-21, thus revising the 9.5 per cent contraction it projected just two months ago, on the back of a host of lead indicators, suggesting sustained economic recovery.
It expects the economy to post 0.1 per cent growth in the December quarter and 0.7 per cent in the March quarter to end the fiscal with 7.5 per cent contraction.
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