Finance & Economy | News & Insights

US Federal Reserve Expectations – H2 2023

Published: June 14, 2023
  • Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey reported tighter bank lending standards and weaker demand.
  • Robust JOLTS data and declining response rates overstate labor market strength.
  • Despite robust NFP data, wage growth and unemployment pointed to a slack.
  • Inflation moving in the right direction but still way off Fed’s 2% target.
  • One-off income growth in January supported Q1 consumption expenditure.
  • GDP growth expected to slow as past rate hikes work through the economy.
  • Future rate hikes cannot be ruled out if incoming data turns out to be robust.
  • Policy rates to remain higher for the remainder of 2023; Rate cuts seen in 2024.


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