Finance & Economy | News & Insights

Economic Pathway – April 2023

Published: April 28, 2023

Global Economy

  • Easing inflation, waning labour market strength, lackluster business activity points to a US slowdown.
  • Post a 25-bps rate hike in May, US Fed could keep rates on hold for the rest of 2023.
  • US Dollar and bond yields expected to ease on the impact of prior rate hikes.
  • China’s Q1 2023 GDP growth beat market expectations at 4.5%, driven mainly by consumption.
  • China’s export growth unlikely to sustain amid slowing external demand from key export markets.
  • China’s real-estate sector continues to pose a pain point.
  • PBOC rate cuts unlikely on risk of overheating the economy and worsening of net export position.
  • OPEC’s oil balance expected to slip into a deficit in 2023 amid production cuts from May until end-2023.

Domestic Economy

  • Consumption indicators stayed healthy in FY23, industrial activity signals resilience.
  • New investment proposals (CMIE) at a record high of Rs 12.4 lakh crore in Q4 FY23.
  • CPI inflation in March eased to a 15-month low of 5.7% on easing food inflation.
  • Cereals and milk inflation stayed elevated despite moderation in food inflation.
  • Average retail inflation projected to moderate to 5.1% in FY24 with inflation in Q1 pegged at 4.8%.
  • Gross bank credit growth remained healthy and was led by the retail, services and industry.
  • Credit growth expected to moderate to 12% in FY24 from an estimated growth of 15% in FY23.
  • Merchandise trade deficit at a record high in FY23 amid sharp increase in imports.
  • Merchandise exports projected to contract 5% in FY24 amid global demand weakness.
  • Trade deficit likely to ease FY24 owing to lower imports and healthy services exports.
  • Low volatility and widening India-US interest rate differential to benefit INR via attractive carry trades in FY24.
  • Rupee likely to appreciate to 81 levels by end-FY24 on dollar weakness and narrowing CAD.
  • 10-year benchmark bond yield eased 19 bps to 7.03% post-RBI’s April rate pause.


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