Highlights:
- Global inflationary pressures ease; growth concerns linger.
- Markets expect policy rates have peaked in the West.
- GDP growth projected at 6.5% in Q2 FY24.
- Festive cheer bodes well for urban demand; Rural demand lags.
- CPI inflation at 4.9% came at a 4-month low in October; Core price pressures ease.
- Inflation projected to remain range-bound around 5.3-5.4% in the next two quarters.
- Goods trade deficit at a record high in October amid higher gold and oil imports.
- Moderation in goods trade deficit likely in the coming months.
- Services exports stable above USD 25 bn; Services trade balance remains healthy.
- Weakening global tech spending remains a monitorable for services exports.
- Festive season currency demand and FX intervention kept liquidity tight.
- 10Y GSec yields tracked fall in UST yields and lower oil prices.
- Status quo expected in RBI’s Dec policy amid inflationary risks.
