INSIGHTS
- The projection for cotton output for 2022–2023 has been lowered to 298.35 lakh 170 kilogramme bales, according to CAI.
- Despite forecasts of higher cotton prices, a lackluster developed-country demand may limit major gains.
- In order to revise estimations as necessary, CAI will keep track of arrivals and pressing numbers.
- Estimated export exports up to April 30 are 12 lakh bales.
The forecast for cotton output in India for the current season 2022–2023 has been lowered once further by the Cotton Association of India (CAI) to 298.35 lakh bales weighing 170 kg apiece. Last month, companies representing the weaving sector criticized CAI for decreasing production. According to CAI, its latest estimate is supported by the advice of a 25-member crop committee that has received urgent data from 11 state organizations.
Following the revision of cotton output projections, CAI anticipates an increase in cotton prices to 75,000 per confection weighing 356 kg. However, the downstream sector anticipates that cotton prices won’t increase significantly due to slower developed-world demand, particularly from the US and Europe—the two regions that buy the most clothing and other textiles.
In a press statement, CAI President Atul Ganatra stated that the organization’s output forecast for the 2022–23 season has been lowered by 4.65 lakh bales to 298.35 lakh bales. Maharashtra, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, and Odisha may each see a further 2 lakh, 0.5 lakh, and 0.15 lakh bale decrease in output. Other significant states’ output forecasts were not updated by CAI.
According to CAI, the committee members will closely monitor the arrivals and quantities of cotton presses in the upcoming months, and if any adjustments need to be made to the output estimate, they will be made in the ensuing reports.
In a research from March 2023, CAI predicted that 313 lakh bales of cotton will be produced. In the February and January 2023 reports, the output of cotton was forecast to be 321 and 330 lakh bales, respectively. After several lower adjustments, the output forecast for last year was ultimately set at 307 lakh bales.
The expected supply between October 2022 and April 2023, which comprises 224.17 lakh arrivals, 7 lakh imports, and the opening stock of 31.89 lakh bales, is assessed at 263.06 lakh bales by CAI. The expected consumption was 179 lakh bales, while the estimated export shipments up to April 30, 2023, were 12 lakh bales. Stock is projected to be 72.06 lakh bales at the end of April 2023, with 52.06 lakh bales being held by textile mills and the remaining 20 lakh being held by the CCI, Maharashtra Federation, and other parties (MNCs, dealers, ginners, etc.).
The expected total supply of cotton bales through the conclusion of the current season 2022–23 (October 2022–September 2023) is 345.24 lakh. It will be made up of a starting stock of 31.89 lakh bales, 298.35 lakh bales produced, and 15 lakh bales imported.
According to prior estimates, the domestic consumption for the season will be 311 lakh bales. The season’s exports are projected to total 20 lakh bales, which is 5,000 less bales than the prior projection. Estimated shipments for the previous year were 43 lakh bales. At 14.24 lakh bales, the carry-over stock is currently thought to be.
