Cotton Association of India (CAI) has released its February estimate of the cotton crop for the season 2019-20 beginning from 1st October 2019.  The CAI has retained its cotton crop estimate for 2019-20 at 354.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each i.e. at the same level as in the previous estimate. A statement containing the State-wise estimate of the cotton crop and the balance sheet as on 30th September 2020 drawn by the Crop Committee of the CAI with the corresponding data for 2018-19 crop year is enclosed.

The total cotton supply estimated by the CAI during the months of October 2019 to February 2020 is 298.43 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each which consists of the arrivals of 254.43 lakh bales upto 29th February 2020, imports of 12 lakh bales upto 29th February  2020 and the opening stock estimated by the CAI at 32.00 lakh bales at the beginning of the season.

Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption during the months of October 2019 to February 2020 at 133 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each while the export shipment of cotton estimated by the CAI upto 29th February 2020 is 27.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each. Stock at the end of February 2020 is estimated by the CAI at 137.93 lakh bales including 40 lakh bales with textile mills and remaining 97.93 lakh bales with CCI and others (MNCs, Traders, Ginners, etc.).

The yearly Balance Sheet projected by the CAI estimated total cotton supply till end of the cotton season i.e. upto 30th September 2020 at 411.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (i.e. at the same level as estimated in the previous month).  Total cotton supply consists of the Opening Stock of 32.00 lakh bales at the beginning of the cotton season on 1st October 2019, crop for the season estimated at 354.50 lakh bales and imports estimated by the CAI at 25.00 lakh bales, which are lower by 7.00 lakh bales compared to the previous year’s estimate of 32.00 lakh bales.

Domestic consumption estimated by the CAI for the entire crop year i.e. upto 30th September 2020 is 331 lakh bales i.e. at the same level as estimated by the Cotton Advisory Board at their meeting held on 28th November 2019. The CAI has estimated exports for the season at 42 lakh bales i.e. at the same level as estimated in the previous year. The carryover stock estimated at the end of the season is 38.50 lakh bales.

HIGHLIGHTS OF DELIBERATIONS HELD AT THE MEETING OF THE CROP COMMITTEE OF COTTON ASSOCIATION OF INDIA ON 5TH MARCH 2020

Crop Committee of Cotton Association of India (CAI) met on 5th March 2020. 15 members were present. Based on the data available from various trade sources, upcountry associations and other stakeholders, the Committee has arrived at its February estimate of the cotton crop for the 2019-20 season beginning on 1st October 2019 and drew estimated cotton balance sheet.

The following are the highlights of deliberations held at the said meeting: –

1) The cotton crop estimate for the season 2019-20 is retained by the CAI at 354.50 lakh bales i.e. at the same level as estimated by it in the previous month and there are no changes in the state-wise crop figures estimated now compared to the previous month.

2) There is no change in the projection of cotton export for the season and the same is retained at 42 lakh bales as estimated by the CAI previously.

3) There is no change in the projection of import of cotton and the same is retained at 25 lakh bales as estimated by the CAI previously. The import figure is lower by 7.00 lakh bales compared to that estimated for the last year.

4) The yearly consumption is estimated by the CAI at 331 lakh bales i,e. same as estimated by the Cotton Advisory Board at its meeting held on 28th November 2019.

5) Indian cotton arrivals during the months of October 2019 to February 2020 are estimated at 254.43 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each which are equivalent to 270.33 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each. 

6) Shipment of imports from 1st October 2019 to 29th February 2020 which have reached Indian Ports are estimated at 12 lakh bales while balance 13 lakh bales are estimated to arrive Indian Ports during the period from 1st March 2020 to 30th September 2020 (total imports estimated during the entire season are 25 lakh bales).

7) Cotton export shipments from 1st October 2019 to 29th February 2020 which have already been shipped are estimated at 27.50 lakh bales while balance 14.50 lakh bales are expected to be shipped during the period from 1st March 2020 to 30th September 2020 (total exports estimated during the entire season are 42 lakh bales).

8) Consumption by Indian spinning mills for 5 months i.e. from 1st October 2019 to 29th February 2020 is estimated at 133 lakh bales which are equivalent to 141.31 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each.

9) Cotton stock held by mills in their godowns on 29th February 2020 is estimated at 40 lakh bales (equivalent to 42.50 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).  Mills have on an average 45 days cotton stock in their godowns.

10) CCI, MNCs, Ginners and MCX are estimated to have stock of about 97.93 lakh bales as on 29th February 2020 which is equal to about 104.05 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each. 

11)Thus, total stock held by spinning mills and stockists on 29th February 2020 is estimated at 137.93 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each which is equal to about 146.55 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each.

12) Closing stock as on 30th September 2020 is estimated by the Committee at 38.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each which is equivalent to 40.90 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each.