Cotton Association (CAI) has released its June estimate of the cotton crop for the season 2018-19 beginning from 1st October 2018. CAI has reduced its June estimate of the cotton crop for 2018-19 by 3 lakh bales from its previous estimate.
A statement containing the State-wise estimate of the cotton crop and the balance sheet for the cotton season 2018-19 with the corresponding data for 2017-18 crop year is enclosed.
Also given below are the highlights of deliberations of the Statistics Committee meeting of the CAI which was held on 10th July 2019 and attended by 30 members including MNCs and Upcountry Cotton Trade Associations representing all growing States.
The CAI has maintained its cotton crop estimate for the Northern Zone at the same level as in its previous month’s estimate i.e. at 59 lakh bales while cotton crop for the Central Zone has been increased by 30,000 bales.
There is an increase in of 3.50 lakh bales for Gujarat state compared to the cotton crop estimate of the CAI made during last month while the crop for Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh have been reduced by 2.88 lakh bales and 7 thousand bales respectively.
The cotton crop for Southern zone has been reduced by 3.25 lakh bales i.e. 68.50 lakh bales compared to the estimate of 71.75 lakh bales made during last month.
The cotton crop for Telangana and Andhra Pradesh States are estimated lower by 2.50 lakh bales and 2.00 lakh bales respectively compared to its previous month’s estimate whereas the cotton crop estimate for the State Orissa is increased by 2 thousand bales compared to the CAI’s previous month estimate.
The total cotton supply estimated by the CAI during the period from October 2018 to June 2019 is 347.84 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each which consists of the arrivals of 303.56 lakh bales upto 30th June 2019, imports of 11.28 lakh bales upto 30th June 2019 and the opening stock at the beginning of the season on 1st October 2018 at 33 lakh bales.
Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption during the months of October 2018 to June 2019 at 243.12 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each while the export shipment of cotton estimated by the CAI upto 30th June 2019 is 44.10 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each.
Stock at the end of June 2019 is estimated by the CAI at 60.62 lakh bales including 33.10 lakh bales with textile mills and remaining 27.52 lakh bales with CCI, MNCs and others (MNCs, Traders, Ginners, etc.).
The yearly Balance Sheet projected by the CAI estimates total cotton supply till end of the cotton season i.e. upto 30th September 2019 at 376 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each consisting of the Opening Stock of 33 lakh bales at the beginning of the cotton season and imports estimated by the CAI at 31 lakh bales, which are higher by 16 lakh bales compared to the previous year’s import estimated at 15 lakh bales.
Domestic consumption estimated by the CAI for the entire crop year i.e. upto 30th September 2019 is 315 lakh bales while the CAI has estimated exports for the season at 46 lakh bales, which are lower by 23 lakh bales compared to the previous year’s cotton exports estimate of 69 lakh bales. The carry over stock estimated at the end of the season is estimated at 15 lakh bales.
THE HIGHLIGHTS OF DELIBERATIONS HELD AT THE ALL INDIA MEETING OF THE
STATISTICS COMMITTEE OF CAI ON WEDNESDAY, THE 10TH JULY 2019.
At the request of the Cotton Association of India (CAI), office of the Textile Commissioner was kind enough to depute Shri R.B. Nair, Deputy Director of the office of the Textile Commissioner to understand the process of arriving at the CAI crop numbers.
At the invitation of the CAI, around 30 members (including MNCs and upcountry cotton associations representing all cotton growing States) attended the meeting of the Statistics Committee. The state-wise views of all state associations were as follows:-
- PUNJAB, HARYANA AND RAJASTHAN
For the purpose of arriving at the crop and arrival figures of Northern zone, the figures provided by ICAL were taken without any change. According to Shri Pankaj Sharda, the arrival of cotton of Northern zone from 1st October 2018 to 30th June 2019 is 57 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each.
According to him, north arrivals in September 2018 was 2 lakh bales. Considering that, CAI has arrived at the crop figure of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan at 59 lakh bales.
Shri Arun Sekhsaria of DD Cotton also supported the crop figure of 59 lakh bales for Northern zone.
(i) Shri Bhupendra Singh Rajpal, President of Maharashtra Cotton Ginners Association who attended the meeting stated that cotton crop of state of Maharashtra for the crop year 2018-19 would be 68-69 lakh bales. He added that he has more than 15 factories in Maharashtra all of which have in fact done 25-30% less pressing than last year.
(ii) Shri Anil Thanvi, Secretary of Maharashtra Cotton Brokers Association stated that cotton crop of Maharashtra state for 2018-19 season is around 70 lakh bales. Due to lack
of rains in August and September farthar crop in last picking of around 20 lakh bales has not come this year and due to lack of water in August and September, farmers were forced to remove their plants by December end.
(iii) Shri Ramnivas Dayma, a crop analyst from Maharashtra, who devotes daily two to three hours in analysing cotton crop data, said that due to lack of rain in October month itself cotton balls were opened in 80% area and the first picking was satisfactory. However, only 70% of second picking has come and there were no third and fourth pickings in Maharashtra. He said that in his own firm, which is non-irrigated only 70 kgs. kapas was realised in one acre.
(iv) At the request of the CAI, Justagri.com assigned a 5-member team to conduct factory-wise, station-wise survey of pressing figures which, upto 30th June 2019, are 69.33 lakh bales consisting of 30.24 lakh bales in Vidharbha zone, 22.04 lakh bales in Marathwada and 17.05 bales in Khandesh totaling 69.33 lakh bales.
CAI and all the members of the Statistics Committee appreciated the work done by Justagri.com.
(v) Shri Manish Daga, who is directly in touch with 30000 farmers in Maharashtra on a daily basis, submitted that the farmers were very disappointed with the income they received to cultivation of kapas in last year. Due to this, it is likely that they may divert to other crops.
(i) Shri Ajay Dalal, Secretary of Gujcot presented crop figures for Gujarat. He submitted that the pressing figures for Gujarat are 92 lakh running bales and the weight of each running bale is however considered at 162 kgs.
However, Shri Vinay Kotak stated that this year the average weight of cotton bales purchased by him from Gujarat for the purpose of export was 157 kgs. only.
Also, Shri Raaja Gokulgandhi and Shri Kishor Chheda, a ginner from Gujarat supported the views of Shri Vinay Kotak and suggested that average weight of cotton bales in Gujarat should be taken at 157-158 kgs. only.
Considering this, the pressing figures of 92 lakh bales upto 30th June 2019 would be equal to 85-86 lakh bales of 170 kg.
Anyhow, the Committee has unanimously appreciated the work done by Gujcot team in collecting factory-wise pressing figures and accepted the same for arriving at CAI crop numbers.
(ii) After considering Gujarat figures, CAI has changed Gujarat crop from 82.5 lakh bales to 86 lakh 170 kg bales and increased the cotton crop for Gujarat by 3.5 lakh bales.
(iii) As CAI has taken Gujcot figures, arrival figures of Gujarat have been corrected from 73.5 lakh bales to 85.25 lakh bales.
This is a big correction and because Gujcot figures have been accepted. It has also been decided that CAI will also consider Gujcot arrival figures of July month in next meeting to be held in the month of August.
- MADHYA PRADESH
(i) Shri Manjeet Singh Chawla, President of Madhyanchal Cotton Ginners & Traders Association and Shri Rajendra C. Jain, Secretary of Madhyanchal Cotton Ginners & Traders Association submitted the cotton crop and arrival figures of Madhya Pradesh. According to them, 22.48 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each have already arrived upto 30th June 2019 and another 75 thousand bales are expected to arrive in the month of September 2019. So, the final figure of MP crop was taken by the Committee at 23.18 lakh bales.
Shri Manjeet Singh Chawla added that the cotton crop in Madhya Pradesh was good this year but the kapas price was less. Due to this, 2 lakh bales of kapas have moved from MP to Gujarat.
(i) Shri Ravinder Reddy, President of Telangana Cotton Millers & Traders Welfare Association and Shri K. Ramesh, the Hon. Secretary of Telangana Cotton Millers & Traders Welfare Association attended the said meeting. According to them, 35.06 lakh bales arrived in Telangana upto June 2019 and another 44000 bales of current crop are likely to arrive upto 30th September 2019. They suggested to finalise the cotton crop of Telangana for the year 2018-19 at 35.5 lakh bales. The CAI committee has accepted their figures.
(ii) Shri Ravinder Reddy stated that due to very poor rain, yield was effected very badly in Telangana and farmers were forced to uproot their cotton plants in December month itself.
(iii) Shri K. Ramesh submitted that the rain pattern in Telangana from the month of June itself was not favourable for cultivation of cotton. Also, the distribution of rain was very poor. This resulted in reduction of cotton crop by 35% in Telangana.
He said that they had anticipated damage in very early stages of the crop and informed the trade at the beginning of the season that cotton crop in Telangana will be below 40 lakh bales but nobody took their observation seriously.
(iv) Shri K. Ramesh added that the Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) has taken Telangana crop at 47 lakh bales against actual crop of 35 lakh bales. The difference is of 12 lakh bales. He requested the Textile Commissioner to allow them to attend the meeting of CAB so that they can submit the reality of crop damage in Telangana state.
- ANDHRA PRADESH
(i) For arriving at the cotton crop size, the figures submitted by the Adoni Cotton Merchants Association were considered. Adoni Cotton Merchants Association had submitted to the Association their cotton crop and arrival figures upto 30th June 2019.
(ii) The pressing figures submitted by Adoni Cotton Merchants Association are upto 2.14 lakh bales against 5.30 lakh bales upto the same time last year. In Adoni itself, 60% reduction in pressing numbers compared to last year has been observed.
(iii) Cotton crop for Andhra Pradesh submitted by various members ranged between 8 lakh bales and 12 lakh bales.
The CAI has accepted the maximum crop figure of 12 lakh bales and reduced the crop for Andhra Pradesh from 14 lakh bales to 12 lakh bales.
(i) Shri Shantilal Ostawal, Secretary of Karnataka Cotton Association attended the meeting. According to him, Karnataka Cotton Association has done the exercise of collecting factory-wise pressing figures of Karnataka state.
(ii) They have come to the conclusion that pressing figures of Karnataka state of 14.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each upto 30th June 2019 and another 1 lakh bales of old and new crop are expected to arrive upto September 2019. Accordingly, the crop figures for Karnataka were revised from 14.25 lakh bales to 15.50 lakh bales and corrections were made in arrivals as per new pressing figures and the cotton crop for Karnataka was increased by 1.25 lakh bales.
Shri Arun Agrawal from Shree Ambica Agro Industries Pvt. Ltd. submitted the factory-wise pressing figures of the entire Orissa state and according to that, the cotton crop figures of Orissa state have been taken at 3.32 lakh bales.
- TAMIL NADU
Cotton crop for Tamil Nadu has been maintained at 5.50 lakh bales and arrivals at 3.50 lakh bales upto 30th June 2019.
Cotton crop for other states not included above has been considered at 1 lakh bales.
In reply to a query, Shri Atul S. Ganatra, the Chairman of the Committee informed the members that the CAI has revised the carryover stock numbers thrice during the last twelve months and increased the total carryover stock by a total of 16 lakh bales i.e. 6 lakh bales on 30th June 2018 (30 + 6 = 36), 5 lakh bales on 28th February 2019 (23 + 5 = 28) and 5 lakh bales 30th June 2019 (28 + 5 = 33).
And this increase of 16 lakh bales has been made to cover any eventuality of miscalculation in any state during last year.
The Committee has decided to increase 5 lakh bales in the carryover stock number from 28 lakh bales to 33 lakh bales due to the meeting of the Sub-committee of CAI /CCI/CITI held under the Chairmanship of the CMD, CCI in the office of the Textile Commissioner.
The MNCs and all upcountry associations were in agreement with the crop figures estimated by the CAI.
Shri Arun Sekhsaria raised a query regarding consumption figure of 311.50 lakh bales given by the CAB. Shri Sekhsaria stated that cotton consumption for Gujarat state has been considered at 13.50 lakh bales only in total consumption of 311.50 lakh bales whereas the actual consumption of Gujarat is more than 65 lakh bales.
Shri Ajay Dalal from Gujarat also supported Shri Sekhsaria. He stated that in Gujarat, 25 lakh new spindles have been started during last 3 years. Per spindle, yearly consumption is 1.8 lakh bales (25 lakh x 1.8 = 45 lakh bales).
Shri Ajay Dalal said 35 rotor machines have been newly started in Gujarat. The consumption of these rotors is around 6 lakh bales. Also he added that there are 15 to 20 old mills like Arvind and others. Their consumption is around 15 lakh bales. So, in all Gujarat mill consumption is near about 66-72 lakh bales.
Shri Dalal informed Shri R.B. Nair add textile Commissioner that Gujcot is working on Gujarat consumption figures and hopefully by September end, they will submit up-to date Gujarat mill consumption figures to CAI and the CAI will hand over the same to the office of the Textile Commissioner.
In the end, Shri Nair observed that the meeting was well organised and all regional associations were given opportunity to submit their cotton crop numbers and that he was happy the way meeting was conducted.
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