Cotton Association of India (CAI) has released its April estimate of the cotton crop for the season 2020-21 beginning from 1st October 2020. 

The CAI has estimated cotton crop for the 2020-21 season at 360.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (i.e. 382.50 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) i.e. at the same level as in the previous estimate.  A statement containing  the state-wise break-up of the Cotton Production and the Balance Sheet as on 30th April 2021 drawn by the Crop Committee of the CAI with the corresponding data for the previous crop year are enclosed.

The total cotton supply for the months of October 2020 to April 2021 is estimated by the CAI at 469.37 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 498.71 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each), which consists of the arrivals of 336.37 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 357.39 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) , imports of 8 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 8.50 lakh running bales of 160 kg. each) and the opening stock estimated by the CAI at 125 lakh bales of 170 kgs .each (equivalent to 132.81 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) at the beginning of the season.  

Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption for the months of October 2020 to April 2021 at 190 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 201.88 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) while the export shipments upto 30th April 2021 are estimated by the CAI at 50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 53.13 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). Stock at the end of April 2021 is estimated at 229.37 lakh of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 243.71 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) including 95.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 100.94 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) with textile mills and the remaining 134.37 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 142.77 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) with the CCI, Maharashtra Federation and others (MNCs, traders, ginners, MCX, etc. including the cotton sold but not delivered). 

The CAI Crop Committee has estimated the total cotton supply till end of the cotton season 2020-21 at the same level i.e. at 496.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 527 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each)upto 30th September 2021. The total cotton supply consists of the opening stock of 125 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each at the beginning of the cotton season on 1st October 2020, crop for the season estimated at 360 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 382.50 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) and the imports estimated by the CAI at 11 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 11.69 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).  The imports estimate for the previous cotton season 2019-20 was of 15.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 16.47 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).  

The domestic consumption estimated by the CAI has been reduced by 15 lakh bales to 315 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 334.69 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) from its previous estimate of 330 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 350.63 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The exports for the season have been estimated by CAI at 65 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 69.06 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) which are higher by 5 lakh bales than 60 lakh bales (equivalent to 63.75 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) estimated previously.  

The exports estimate for the previous cotton season 2019-20 was of 50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 53.13 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).  The carry-over stock at the end of the cotton season 2020-21 on 30th September 2021, is estimated by the CAI at 116 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 123.25 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) as against 107.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 114.22 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) estimated for the previous cotton season 2019-20.

HIGHLIGHTS OF DELIBERATIONS HELD BY THE CAI CROP COMMITTEE ON 10TH MAY 2021

The Crop Committee of the Cotton Association of India (CAI) held its meeting on 10th May 2021, which was attended by in all 21 members representing all cotton producing states and stakeholders. The Committee arrived at the April estimate of the cotton crop for the 2020-21 crop year and drawn the estimated cotton balance sheet based on the data available from various trade sources, upcountry associations and other  stakeholders.

The following are the highlights of the deliberations held at this meeting:-

1. CONSUMPTION

The CAI has reduced its consumption estimate for the current crop year by 15 lakh bales to 315 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each from its previous estimate of 330 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each. The cotton consumption this year is likely to take a hit because of the ongoing COVID-19 Pandemic and lockdown in most of the states.  The consumption now estimated for the current crop year is, however, higher by 65 lakh bales compared to the previous year’s consumption estimate of 250 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 265.63 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). 

Upto 30th April 2021, the consumption is estimated at 190 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 201.88 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).

2. PRODUCTION

The CAI has retained its production estimate for the season 2020-21 at 360.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 382.50 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) made during the last month. 

The Committee members will have a close watch on the cotton arrivals in the subsequent months and if any addition or reduction is required to be made in the production estimate, the same will be made in the CAI reports.

3. IMPORTS

The estimate of cotton Imports into India has been retained at 11 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 11.69 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).  The imports now estimated for the 2020-21 crop year are less by 4.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each from 15.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 16.47 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) estimated for the 2019-20 crop year.

Upto 30th April 2021, about 8.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 8.50 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) are estimated to have arrived the Indian Ports.

4. EXPORTS

The estimate of cotton exports for the 2020-21 crop year has been increased by 5 lakh bales to 65 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 69.06 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each.

Upto 30th April 2021, about 50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 53.13 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) are estimated to have been shipped.

5. ARRIVALS

Indian cotton arrivals during the months of October 2020 to April 2021 are estimated at 336.37 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 357.39 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).

6. STOCK AS ON 30TH APRIL 2021

The cotton stocks held by mills in their godowns on 30th April 2021 are estimated at 95 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 100.94 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The mills have on an average 109 days’ cotton stock in their godowns.

The CCI, Maharashtra Federation, MNCs, Ginners, Traders, MCX, etc. are estimated to have a total stock of about 134.37 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 142.77 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) as on 30th April 2021.

Thus, the total stock held by spinning mills and stockists including the stock of cotton sold but not delivered on 30th April 2021 is estimated at 229.37 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 243.71 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).

7. CLOSING STOCK AS ON 30TH SEPTEMBER 2021

Closing stock as on 30th September 2021 is estimated by the Committee at 116 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 123.25 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).

CAI Cotton Crop Esti. 20-21 (April-21 end) 11-5-21 (PR)