Cotton Association of India (CAI) has released its November estimate of the cotton crop for the Season 2020-21 beginning on 1st October 2020.

CAI has retained its cotton crop estimate for the 2020-21 Season at 356 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each which is equivalent to 378.25 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each. Cotton crop finalised by the CAI for the previous cotton season 2019-20 was 360 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (i.e. 382.50 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The state-wise break up of cotton Production and Balance Sheet for the Season with the corresponding data for the previous cotton crop year are enclosed.

Total cotton supply estimated by the CAI during the months of October and November 2020 is 201.07 lakh bales of 170 Kgs. each i.e. 213.64 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each, which comprises the arrivals of 91.57 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (i.e. 97.29 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) during the months of October and November 2020, import of cotton estimated at 2.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (2.13 lakh running bales of 160 kgs .each) upto 30th November 2020 and opening stock estimated by the CAI at 107.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs .each (i.e. 114.22 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) at the beginning of the cotton season on 1st October 2020.

Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption during the months of October and November 2020 at 57.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each i.e. 61.09 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each while export shipment of cotton estimated by the CAI upto 30th November 2020 is 12 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (i.e. 12.75 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). Stocks at the end of November 2020 is estimated by the CAI at 131.57 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (i.e. 139.79 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).

The CAI Crop Committee has estimated total cotton supply till end of the cotton season 2020-21 i.e. upto 30th September 2021 at 477.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 507.34 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) i.e. at the same level as estimated in the previous month. Total cotton supply consists of the opening stock of 107.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each at the beginning of the Season on 1st October 2020, crop for the Season estimated at 356 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each and imports estimated by the CAI at 14 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 14.88 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each), which are less by 1.50 bales of 170 kgs. each than 15.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (16.47 lakh running bales) estimated for the cotton season 2019-20.

Domestic consumption has now been estimated by the CAI at 330 lakh bales of 170 kgs .each (equivalent to 350.63 lakh running bales of 160 kgs .each) i.e. at the same level as estimated in the previous month.

There is an increase of 80 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each in the cotton consumption for the cotton season 2020-21 from the previous year’s consumption estimate of 250 lakh bales. The consumption is expected to reach its normal level this year after the disruptions and labour shortage caused on account of the lockdown imposed in the country to arrest spread of COVID-19 Pandemic.

The CAI has estimated exports for the Season at 54 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 57.38 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) as against 60 lakh bales of 170 Kgs. each estimated in the previous month. This export estimate is higher by 4 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each than that estimated for the previous cotton season.

The carry-over stock at the end of the cotton season 2020-21 is estimated by the CAI at 93.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 99.34 lakh running bales of 170 kgs. each) as against 107.50 lakh bales (114.22 lakh running bales of 170 kgs. each) at the end of the previous cotton season 2019-20.

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HIGHLIGHTS OF DELIBERATIONS HELD BY THE CROP COMMITTEE OF COTTON ASSOCIATION OF INDIA ON 5TH DECEMBER 2020

Crop Committee of Cotton Association of India (CAI) held its meeting on 5th December 2020 by video conferencing. 22 members representing all cotton producing states and stakeholders, who attended this meeting, arrived at the November estimate of the cotton crop for the 2020-21 season beginning on 1st October 2019 and drawn estimated cotton balance sheet based on the data available from various trade sources, upcountry associations and other stakeholders.

The following are the highlights of deliberations of the Crop Committee of the CAI: –

  • CONSUMPTION

The CAI has retained its consumption estimate for the current crop year at the same level as estimated in the last month i.e. 330.00 lakh bales. The consumption for the previous season was estimated at 250 lakh bales due to the disruptions caused on account of COVID-19 Pandemic. Consumption is now expected to reach pre-lockdown level of 330 bales during the 2020-21 Season.

Upto 30th November 2020, consumption is estimated at 57.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 61.09 lakh running bales of 160 Kgs. each).

  • PRODUCTION

The CAI has maintained its cotton production estimate for the season 2020-21 at the same level as estimated in the previous month i.e. at 356 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 378.25 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each. The crop estimated now for 2020-21 Season is less by 4 lakh bales from the previous year’s crop estimate of 360 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each.

The Committee members will have a close watch on the cotton arrivals in the subsequent months and if any addition or reduction is required to be made in the production estimate, the same will be made in the CAI reports.

  • IMPORTS

The estimate of the cotton imports into India has been maintained by the CAI at the same level as estimated in the previous month i.e. at 14.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 14.88 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) which are less by 1.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each from 15.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each estimated for the 2019-20 crop year. Upto 30th November 2020, about 2 lakh cotton bales of 170 kgs. each are estimated to have arrived Indian Ports.

  • EXPORTS

The CAI has reduced its export estimate for the 2020-21 Season by 6 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each to 54 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each from 60 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each estimated in the previous month, against the previous year’s export estimate of 50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (53.13 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) Upto 30th November 2020, 12 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (12.75 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) are estimated to have been shipped.

  • ARRIVALS

Indian cotton arrivals during the months of October and November 2020 are estimated at 91.57 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each which are equivalent to 97.29 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each.

  • STOCK AS ON 30TH NOVEMBER 2020

Cotton stock held by mills in their godowns on 30th November 2020 is estimated at 40.00 lakh bales (equivalent to 42.50 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).  Mills have on an average about 43 days’ cotton stock in their godowns.

CCI, Maharashtra Federation, MNCs, Ginners and MCX are estimated to have stock of about 91.57 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each as on 30th November 2020 which is equal to about 97.29 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each. Thus, total stock held by spinning mills and stockists on 30th November 2020 is estimated at 131.57 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each which is equal to about 139.79 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each.

  • CLOSING STOCK AS ON 30TH SEPTEMBER 2021 

Closing stock as on 30th September 2020 is estimated by the Committee at 93.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each which is equivalent to about 99.34 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each.

 Mumbai Atul S. Ganatra
Date: 7th December 2020 President