CAI Estimates It’s Cotton Crop For 2020-21 Season At 360 Lakh Bales

Cotton Association of India (CAI) has released its March estimate of the cotton crop for the season 2020-21 beginning from 1^st October 2020. The CAI has estimated its cotton crop for the 2020-21 season at 360.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (i.e. 382.50 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) from its previous estimate of 358.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 380.91 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The state-wise break-up of the Cotton Production and Balance Sheet for the season with the corresponding data for the previous crop year are enclosed.

The total cotton supply for the months of October 2020 to March 2021 is estimated by the CAI at 459.26 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 487.96 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each), which consists of the arrivals of 326.76 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 347.18 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) , imports of 7.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 7.97 lakh running bales of 160 kg. each) and the opening stock estimated by the CAI at 125 lakh bales of 170 kgs .each (equivalent to 132.81 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) at the beginning of the season.

Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption for the months of October 2020 to March 2021 at 165.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 175.31 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) while the export shipments upto 31^st March 2021 are estimated by the CAI at 43 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 45.69 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).

Stock at the end of March 2021 is estimated at 251.26 lakh of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 266.96 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) including 95.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 100.94 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) with textile mills and the remaining 156.26 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 166.03 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) with the CCI, Maharashtra Federation and others (MNCs, traders, ginners, MCX, etc. including the cotton sold but not delivered).

The CAI Crop Committee has estimated the total cotton supply till end of the cotton season 2020-21 i.e. upto 30^th September 2021 at 496.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 527 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The total cotton supply consists of the opening stock of 125 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each at the beginning of the cotton season on 1^st October 2020, crop for the season estimated at 360 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 382.50 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) and the imports now estimated by the CAI at 11 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 11.69 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) which is lower by 1 lakh bales estimated at previous month. The imports estimate for the previous cotton season 2019-20 was of 15.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 16.47 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).

The domestic consumption estimated by the CAI has been retained at the pre-lock down level of 330 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 350.63 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The exports for the season have also been retained at 60 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 63.75 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).

The exports estimate for the previous cotton season 2019-20 was of 50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 53.13 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).  The carry-over stock at the end of the cotton season 2020-21 on 30^th September 2021, is estimated by the CAI at 106 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 112.63 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) as against 107.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 114.22 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) estimated for the previous cotton season 2019-20.

HIGHLIGHTS OF DELIBERATIONS HELD BY THE

CAI CROP COMMITTEE ON 13^TH APRIL 2021

The Crop Committee of the Cotton Association of India (CAI) held its meeting on 13^th April 2021, which was attended by in all 20 members representing all cotton producing states and stakeholders. The Committee arrived at the March estimate of the cotton crop for the 2020-21 crop year and drawn the estimated cotton balance sheet based on the data available from various trade sources, upcountry associations and other  stakeholders.

The following are the highlights of the deliberations held at this meeting:-

1. CONSUMPTION

The CAI has retained its consumption estimate for the current crop year at the same level as estimated in the last month i.e. 330 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each. There is an increase of 80 lakh bales in the cotton consumption estimate compared to the previous year’s consumption estimate of 250 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 265.63 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The consumption  is estimated to reach its normal level  this year after the disruptions and labour shortage caused on account of the lockdown imposed in the country to arrest spread of COVID-19 pandemic. Upto 31^st March 2021, the consumption is estimated at 165 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 175.31 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).

2. PRODUCTION

The CAI has increased its production estimate for the season 2020-21 to 360.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 382.50 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) from its previous estimate of 358.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 380.91 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) made during the last month. The CAI has increased 1,50,000 bales in north zone i.e. 50,000 bales each in Haryana, Upper Rajasthan and Lower Rajasthan. The Committee members will have a close watch on the cotton arrivals in the subsequent months and if any addition or reduction is required to be made in the production estimate, the same will be made in the CAI reports.

3. IMPORTS

The estimate of cotton Imports into India has been reduced by 1 lakh bales to 11 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 11.69 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) from  the previous month’s import estimate of 12 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 12.75 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).  The imports now estimated for the 2020-21 crop year are less by 4.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each from 15.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 16.47 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) estimated for the 2019-20 crop year. Upto 31^st March 2021, about 7.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 7.97 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) are estimated to have arrived the Indian Ports.

4. EXPORTS

The estimate of cotton exports for the 2020-21 crop year has been retained at 60 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 63.75 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each. Upto 31^st March 2021, about 43 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 45.69 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) are estimated to have been shipped.

5. ARRIVALS

Indian cotton arrivals during the months of October 2020 to March 2021 are estimated at 326.76 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 347.18 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).

6. STOCK AS ON 31^ST MARCH 2021

The cotton stocks held by mills in their godowns on 31^st March 2021 are estimated at 95 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 100.94 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The mills have on an average 107 days’ cotton stock in their godowns.

The CCI, Maharashtra Federation, MNCs, Ginners, Traders, MCX, etc. are estimated to have a total stock of about 156.26 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 166.03 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) as on 31^st March 2021.

Thus, the total stock held by spinning mills and stockists including the stock of cotton sold but not delivered on 31^st March 2021 is estimated at 251.26 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 266.96 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).

7. CLOSING STOCK AS ON 30^TH SEPTEMBER 2021

Closing stock as on 30^th September 2021 is estimated by the Committee at 106 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 112.63 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).

CAI Cotton Crop Esti. 20-21(March.21 End) Dt 15-4-21 (PR)