New Cotton Review Examines Global Competitiveness, Price Risk and Production Opportunities
September 2026 edition covers Brazil’s export logistics, cotton price outlook, Ethiopia’s production potential, AGOA and Iran’s cotton sector
The September 2026 edition of Cotton: Review of the World Situation examines key developments and challenges affecting the global cotton industry, covering production, trade, logistics, market risk and policy across Brazil, Ethiopia, Iran, Africa and the wider global market.
The edition features five articles examining Brazil’s growing role in global cotton exports, cotton price volatility, Ethiopia’s production potential, the extension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and production challenges in Iran.
Brazil’s Cotton Competitiveness Extends Beyond Production
In “After the Gin: Where Brazil’s Cotton Competitiveness Is Actually Decided,” Jonathan Valério, Sales and Marketing Director at Magna Logistics Solutions, examines the logistics challenges facing Brazil as its cotton exports continue to grow.
Brazil exported 3.027 million tonnes of cotton in 2025 and is expected to reach a record 3.418 million tonnes in 2026.
Around 95% of Brazil’s cotton export volume currently moves through the Port of Santos, requiring between 110,000 and 120,000 containers annually. This concentration exposes exporters to competition for trucks, port capacity and containers, as well as vessel delays and other logistics costs.
The article examines options including greater use of the Port of Salvador for cotton produced in Bahia, earlier logistics planning and contract provisions to better allocate costs related to rebooking and detention.
The Port of Salvador is undergoing an expansion expected to double its container capacity.
Cotton Prices Face Conflicting Market Signals
In “Cotton at the Crossroads: A Broker’s Perspective on Price Risk and the 2026–27 Outlook,” Valentin Olah, Senior Broker with the Global Cotton Desk at StoneX Financial Inc., examines the competing factors influencing cotton prices.
December 2026 cotton futures climbed from a life-of-contract low near 66 cents per pound to nearly 93 cents before retreating by roughly nine cents.
According to USDA’s September projections, 2026/27 world cotton production is expected at 117.3 million bales, compared with consumption of 122.9 million bales, creating a gap of 5.6 million bales.
The article also examines the relationship between cotton and polyester. Higher oil and synthetic-fibre feedstock costs could provide relative support for cotton, while higher prices across the textile supply chain could restrain demand.
Brazil’s emergence as a major supplier has also increased year-round cotton availability and reduced some of the traditional seasonal scarcity associated with US cotton.
The analysis notes that crop conditions, export demand, mill purchasing, speculative positioning and competition from alternative fibres will influence how tighter market fundamentals translate into cotton futures prices.
Ethiopia Seeks to Expand Cotton Production
The article “Ethiopia’s Cotton Sector: Weaving a Future from Vast Potential,” by Tsegaye Abebe, Executive Director of the Ethiopian Cotton Association, examines the country’s efforts to expand cotton production and strengthen links between growers, ginners and the domestic textile industry.
Ethiopia has an estimated 3 million hectares of land suitable for cotton production, although only a fraction of this potential has historically been cultivated.
The country also faces a significant productivity gap. Ethiopian researchers have released 45 cotton varieties over the past 30 years, with experimental seed cotton yields reaching as high as 5,433 kg/ha. Commercial smallholder productivity, however, averages approximately 726 kg/ha.
Improving irrigation, certified seed availability, extension services, quality management and processing infrastructure will be important to closing this gap.
Ethiopia’s domestic textile mills already consume an estimated 55,000 tonnes of lint annually, providing a potential market for increased domestic production and value addition.
AGOA Extension Leaves Policy Questions
In “AGOA to 2028: Extension Without Full Reform,” ICAC Economist Lorena Ruiz examines the latest extension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).
The extension would continue duty-free access to the US market through December 31, 2028. The legislation received overwhelming bipartisan support in both chambers of Congress and, as described in the article, awaits the President’s signature.
The review examines unresolved issues including eligibility requirements, rules of origin and the relationship between US trade policy and efforts to develop stronger textile and apparel industries in Africa.
AGOA currently provides eligible sub-Saharan African countries with duty-free access for more than 1,800 tariff lines beyond those covered by the Generalized System of Preferences, with apparel among its significant benefits.
Iran Examines Cotton Production Challenges
The issue also features “Challenges, Opportunities and Innovations of Cotton Cultivation and Production in Iran,” by Mohammadreza Ramazani Moghaddam.
The article examines challenges facing cotton cultivation and production in Iran, while exploring opportunities to improve productivity and sustainability through improved technologies and production practices.
The September 2026 edition therefore covers a range of issues affecting the cotton sector, from production and logistics to prices, trade policy and opportunities for value addition.