India’s Cotton Output Estimate Rises to 309.50 Lakh Bales: CAI
The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has issued its updated outlook for the 2025–26 cotton season, projecting a higher pressing estimate as the new crop cycle gains momentum. The season, which commenced on 1 October 2025, is now expected to deliver 309.50 lakh bales of 170 kg each—an upward revision of 4.50 lakh bales from the earlier forecast. This is equivalent to 324.78 lakh running bales of 162 kg each, with a variance band of +/- 3%. The assessment is based on inputs from 11 state associations and various trade sources. The detailed state-wise pressing numbers and the season’s balance sheet have been shared alongside the report.
For November 2025, CAI pegs total supply at 148.37 lakh bales of 170 kg each (155.70 lakh running bales of 162 kg each). This includes 69.78 lakh bales pressed during the month, imports of 18.00 lakh bales, and an opening stock of 60.59 lakh bales at the start of the season.
Domestic mill consumption for November is estimated at 48.40 lakh bales, while export shipments up to 30 November total 3.00 lakh bales. The month closes with 96.97 lakh bales in stock, comprising 50 lakh bales with textile mills and 46.97 lakh bales held by CCI, the Maharashtra Federation, ginners, traders, exporters, and other entities, including cotton that has been sold but not yet delivered.
Looking at the broader season, total cotton availability up to 30 September 2026—the end of the 2025–26 crop year—is projected at 420.09 lakh bales of 170 kg each (440.84 lakh running bales). This comfortably exceeds last year’s supply of 392.59 lakh bales. The seasonal supply mix includes the opening stock of 60.59 lakh bales, the revised pressing estimate of 309.50 lakh bales, and imports of 50 lakh bales, which are 9 lakh bales higher than the previous year. Domestic consumption for the year is set at 295 lakh bales, while exports are forecast at 18 lakh bales, unchanged from 2024–25.
Highlights from CAI’s Crop Committee Meeting (5 December 2025)
During its virtual meeting on 5 December, the CAI Crop Committee—comprising 18 representatives from major cotton-growing regions—reviewed state-wise conditions and finalized the pressing numbers and balance sheet for the season.
Consumption
CAI expects total consumption during the 2025–26 season to reach 295 lakh bales, down from 314 lakh bales last year. 48.40 lakh bales have already been consumed up to 30 November 2025.
Cotton Pressing
Based on reports from associations and trade partners, the Committee has increased its pressing estimate to 309.50 lakh bales, revising it upward by 4.50 lakh bales. State-wise adjustments include:
State | Increase/Decrease (lakh bales) |
|---|---|
Gujarat | +3.00 |
Maharashtra | +3.00 |
Telangana | -2.50 |
Karnataka | +1.00 |
Total Change | +4.50 |
The Committee will continue monitoring arrivals and may revise estimates in future updates.
Imports
Imports for 2025–26 have been raised to 50 lakh bales, up 5 lakh bales from the earlier estimate and 9 lakh bales higher than last year. As of 30 November, 18 lakh bales have already arrived at Indian ports.
Exports
CAI has increased its export estimate to 18 lakh bales, up 1 lakh bale from the previous estimate. Shipments of 3 lakh bales have been recorded until 30 November 2025.
Closing Stock
The season is expected to end with a substantially higher closing stock of 107.09 lakh bales on 30 September 2026—up 46.50 lakh bales compared to last year’s closing levels.