Indian Cotton Prices Rebound by ₹3,000–4,000 per Candy Amid Yield Concerns
Slow arrivals, deficient rainfall and expectations of stronger prices are prompting farmers to hold back kapas, while improved mill demand supports the market.
Indian cotton prices rebounded by around ₹3,000–4,000 per candy last week, reaching approximately ₹68,000, as new-crop arrivals remained slow and concerns grew over potential yield losses due to deficient rainfall. Trade sources said farmers were also holding back their produce in anticipation of further price increases.
The recovery coincided with gains in December and March cotton futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Meanwhile, the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) increased its auction prices for the 2025–26 crop by ₹500 per candy (356 kg) across all states.
New-Crop Arrivals Reach Around 5 Lakh Bales
The 2026–27 cotton season has begun, with cumulative arrivals reaching approximately 5 lakh bales during the first nine days of the season.
On Monday, arrivals stood at around 78,000 bales, comprising approximately 17,000 bales in North India, 16,000 in Madhya Pradesh, 15,000 in Gujarat, 9,000 in Karnataka, 8,000 in Andhra Pradesh, 7,000 in Maharashtra and 6,000 in Telangana.
Despite the arrival of the new crop, concerns over lower yields and limited immediate availability have contributed to the recent price recovery.
Farmers Hold Back Kapas as Prices Strengthen
“Farmers are not in a hurry to sell kapas at the MSP of ₹8,650, as yields are low and they have less kapas to sell,” said Atul S Ganatra, CMD of Radhalakshmi Group.
Gujarat S6 cotton prices rose by ₹4,000 per candy to ₹68,000 on Monday, compared with ₹64,000 on September 30, amid concerns that this year's crop could be significantly smaller than last year's.
“Demand for cotton from mills is good at these levels,” he said.
Anand Popat of CotYarn Trade Link, in his weekly newsletter, also pointed to limited immediate availability and expectations of stronger mill demand.
“Indian cotton prices strengthened significantly during the week, supported by limited immediate availability and expectations of higher mill demand. Despite increasing new-season arrivals, October supplies may remain insufficient to meet domestic consumption requirements. Low inventories at many spinning mills and substantial import requirements are expected to support cotton demand,” said Anand Popat of CotYarn Trade Link in his weekly newsletter.
“Considering the supply-demand situation, the Indian cotton market appears fundamentally supportive, although increasing arrivals and international price movements may cause short-term fluctuations. The outlook for the Indian cotton market remains firm to cautiously bullish,” Popat said.
Buying Interest Improves in Regional Markets
Ramanuj Das Boob, a sourcing agent in Raichur, said demand for locally available cotton had improved amid low arrivals.
“Overall, it looks like demand has improved, and there is good buying interest,” he said.
Cotton prices have increased by around ₹3,000 per candy over the past 10 days. In Raichur, prices rose to ₹9,700 per quintal on Monday, compared with ₹9,500 previously. Prices in Telangana also increased to approximately ₹9,200 per quintal.
“Due to low yields and a smaller crop, farmers are holding back their cotton. They are not bringing it to the market because yields have been poor this year. Instead, they are holding on to their produce, anticipating higher prices, and are not rushing to sell,” Das Boob said.
He added that cotton acreage has declined and yields are lower this year due to deficient rainfall. The crop requires rain at its current stage, he said.
Market Outlook Depends on Arrivals and Mill Demand
The recent price rebound reflects concerns about crop availability alongside improved buying interest from spinning mills. However, the pace of new-crop arrivals, international cotton price movements and the extent of domestic supply requirements will remain important factors influencing the market in the coming weeks.