The officials said that the figure is provisional and that efforts are now being made to establish a “realistic” aim with a focus on emerging export markets including e-commerce and non-IT services.
The government will make a final decision only after speaking with all interested parties, taking into account detailed trade data, and taking into account global expectations, but it will undoubtedly aim for “at least” $130 billion more in FY24 than in FY23, or roughly 17% more, they added. In 2022–2023, India’s exports as a whole increased 14% from the previous year.
“The expansion of important foreign markets is a requirement for exports, thus much will depend on global demand. It also depends on exporters’ confidence, which is high following the fiscal year’s record-breaking exports, according to one of the officials. Exports are rising Despite significant obstacles, by $94 billion in 2022–2023; thus, an additional $130 billion is not inconceivable even if the global situation does not significantly improve, he added.A second official stated that the process of establishing the export target for FY24 is “a work in progress” and that any growth on a higher base of $770 billion will be difficult given the current state of the world economy. He was referring to a sluggish global demand as a result of several central banks raising interest rates to control inflation. But there is reason to be happy, he said.
“The WTO’s (World Trade Organisation) prediction for trade growth is one encouraging element. It increased its projection of the growth of the world’s goods trade volume to 1.7% in 2023 from its October 2022 estimate. Estimates of key markets’ GDP (gross domestic product) growth would also have an impact on our goal for the current fiscal year. To determine a reasonable estimate, experts, stakeholders, and Indian missions would also be consulted, the official added.Under the condition of anonymity, two industry insiders claimed that, with new focus areas, an increase in total exports of $100–130 billion (up from the $770 billion reached in FY23) is feasible. However, they added that the government must ease administrative burdens. According to their explanation, this was one of the factors contributing to the gem and jewellery industry’s poor performance in 2022–2023: “Procedural obstacles made it difficult for the sector to fulfil the target by limiting the availability of gold and silver for exports. Additionally, there is a requirement to enhance the Export Data Processing. System (EDPMS) for this industry. According to Ashok Seth, regional chairman for the northern area of the Gem Jewellery Export Promotion Council, if the two problems are fixed, the industry may easily export $44 billion in 2023–2024.In FY23, the sector could only generate $37.96 billion, or around a 3% decrease, against a target of $40 billion. The sector’s percentage of all exports of goods decreased as well, from 9.27% in 2021–2022 to 8.48% in 2022–2033.
The aim might be reached, according to Sharad Chandra Shukla, director at Mehta Equities Ltd, with ongoing attention paid to ease of doing business and improvements in infrastructure to lower logistic costs for businesses focused on exports. With a few changes, he continued, “The software export story can be replicated in the manufacturing area.”
