India’s cotton exports are more likely to hit 60 lakh bales (every of 170 kg) for the present season (October 2020-September 2021) on value competitiveness.

Trade physique Cotton Association of India (CAI) has famous that up to now about 60 per cent or 36 lakh bales has been shipped because the begin of the season.

This is primarily resulting from Indian cotton’s price competitiveness within the worldwide market. Indian cotton quoted at round Rs.44,000-45,500 per sweet (every of 356 kg of processed cotton) through the previous couple of months. At this charge, the Indian exporters might supply a 10-per cent low cost to the worldwide prices, which hovered at round 85.60 cents per pound.

Higher crop outlook

However, commerce insiders knowledgeable that India’s aggressive benefit is probably not sustained because the worldwide cotton prices are seen falling on increased crop outlook within the subsequent year. The downward strain on the worldwide prices can also be mirrored within the far month futures on ICE, which quoted December ICE futures at 74 cents — about 11 cents decrease than present prices.

On the opposite hand, Indian cotton prices have additionally began upward journey amid elevated off take within the export market. The benchmark Guj (ICS-105 – 29mm selection) has surged by over Rs.2,000 a sweet from Rs.43,200 on January 12.

Last year India’s cotton exports had been estimated at 50 lakh bales.

CAI projections

For the cotton crop, CAI has revised its output projections downward to 358.5 lakh bales, decrease by about 1.5 lakh bales from earlier estimate. Last year, the output was anticipated at 360 lakh bales.

CAI, in its newest crop outlook for March, acknowledged that India’s cotton imports can be round 12 lakh bales for the year, which is decrease by about 2 lakh bales from the sooner estimated about 14 lakh bales for the season.

The doubtless drop is attributed to the current hike within the import obligation on long-staple number of cotton. Last year, India had imported 15.50 lakh bales of the fibre. As per the CAI data, as on February 28, complete 7 lakh bales has already arrived at Indian ports.

Cotton steadiness sheet

Total cotton availability for the season is estimated at 495.50 lakh bales, which included the opening stock of 125 lakh bales firstly of the cotton season on October 1, 2020, and imports of 12 lakh bales, in addition to the crop dimension of 358.50 lakh bales, of which 298.89 lakh bales or about 83 per cent crop has already arrived within the markets until February 28, 2021.

The CAI estimates prompt that primarily based on the consumption projections, about 330 lakh bales can be consumed within the home market, whereas 60 lakh bales can be exported abandoning the carry-over stock on the finish of the cotton season 2020-21 on September 30, 2021, at 105.50 lakh bales, which is marginally decrease from 107.50 lakh bales within the earlier season.