Cotton Association of India (CAI) has released its February estimate of the cotton crop for the season 2020-21 beginning from 1st October 2020. The CAI has reduced its cotton crop estimate for the 2020-21 season by 1.50 lakh bales to 358.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (i.e. 380.91 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) from its previous estimate of 360 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 382.50 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The state-wise break-up of the Cotton Production and Balance Sheet for the season with the corresponding data for the previous crop year are enclosed.

The total cotton supply for the months of October 2020 to February 2021 is estimated by the CAI at 430.89 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 457.82 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each), which consists of the arrivals of 298.89 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 317.57 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) , imports of 7 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 7.44 lakh running bales of 160 kg. each) and the opening stock estimated by the CAI at 125 lakh bales of 170 kgs .each (equivalent to 132.81 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) at the beginning of the season.

Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption for the months of October 2020 to February 2021 at 137.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 146.09 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) while the export shipments upto 28th February 2021 are estimated by the CAI at 36 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 38.25 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).

Stock at the end of February 2021 is estimated at 257.39 lakh of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 273.48 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) including 92.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 98.28 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) with textile mills and the remaining 164.89 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 175.20 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) with the CCI, Maharashtra Federation and others (MNCs, traders, ginners, MCX, etc. including the cotton sold but not delivered).

The CAI Crop Committee has estimated the total cotton supply till end of the cotton season 2020-21 i.e. upto 30th September 2021 at 495.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 526.47 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The total cotton supply consists of the opening stock of 125 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each at the beginning of the cotton season on 1st October 2020, crop for the season estimated at 358.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 380.91 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) and the imports now estimated by the CAI at 12 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 12.75 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) as against 15.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 16.47 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) estimated for the previous cotton season 2019-20.

The domestic consumption estimated by the CAI has been retained at the pre-lock down level of 330 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 350.63 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The exports for the season have now been estimated at 60 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 63.75 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) from the previous month’s estimate of 54 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 57.38 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The exports estimate for the previous cotton season 2019-20 was of  50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 53.13 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).  The carry-over stock at the end of the cotton season 2020-21 on 30th September 2021, is estimated by the CAI at 105.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 112.09 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) as against 107.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 114.22 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).

HIGHLIGHTS OF DELIBERATIONS HELD BY THE CAI CROP COMMITTEE ON 10TH MARCH 2021

The Crop Committee of the Cotton Association of India (CAI) held its first physical meeting after the lock-down on 10th March 2021, which was attended by in all 14 members representing all cotton producing states and stakeholders. The Committee arrived at the February estimate of the cotton crop for the 2020-21 crop year and drawn the estimated cotton balance sheet based on the data available from various trade sources, upcountry associations and other  stakeholders.

The following are the highlights of the deliberations held at this meeting:-

  1. CONSUMPTION

The CAI has retained its consumption estimate for the current crop year at the same level as estimated in the last month i.e. 330 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each. There is an increase of 80 lakh bales in the cotton consumption estimate compared to the previous year’s consumption estimate of 250 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 265.63 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The consumption  is estimated to reach its normal level  this year after the disruptions and labour shortage caused on account of the lockdown imposed in the country to arrest spread of COVID-19 pandemic.

Upto 28th February 2021, the consumption is estimated at 137.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 146.09 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).

  1. PRODUCTION

The CAI has reduced its production estimate for the season 2020-21 to 358.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 380.91 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) from its previous estimate of 360 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 382.50 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) made during the last month. The changes made in the state-wise cotton production estimates for the season now made compared to those estimated during the last month are given below:-

In lakh bales of 170 kgs. each

States Increase (+) / Reduction (-)
Haryana +1.50
Upper Rajasthan +2.00
Lower Rajasthan -1.50
Gujarat +3.00
Maharashtra -5.00
Madhya  Pradesh -2.00
Telangana -1.50
Karnataka -1.00
Tamil Nadu +2.00
Others +1.00
Net reduction -1.50

The Committee members will have a close watch on the cotton arrivals in the subsequent months and if any addition or reduction is required to be made in the production estimate, the same will be made in the CAI reports.

  1. IMPORTS

The estimate of cotton Imports into India has been reduced by 2 lakh bales to 12 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 12.75 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) from  the previous month’s import estimate of 14 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 14.88 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).  The imports now estimated for the 2020-21 crop year are less by 3.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each from 15.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 16.47 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) estimated for the 2019-20 crop year.

Upto 28th February 2021, about 7.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each  are estimated to have arrived the Indian Ports.

  1. EXPORTS

The estimate of cotton exports for the 2020-21 crop year has now been increased by 6 lakh bales to 60 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 63.75 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) from the previous month’s exports estimate of 54.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 57.38 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).

Upto 28th February 2021, about 36.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 38.25 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) are estimated to have been shipped.

  1. ARRIVALS

Indian cotton arrivals during the months of October 2020 to February 2021 are estimated at 298.89 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 317.57 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).

  1. STOCK AS ON 28TH FEBRUARY 2021

The cotton stocks held by mills in their godowns on 28th February 2021 are estimated at 92.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 98.28 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The mills have on an average 90 days’ cotton stock in their godowns.

The CCI, Maharashtra Federation, MNCs, Ginners, Traders, MCX, etc. are estimated to have a total stock of about 164.89 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 175.20 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) as on 28th February 2021.

Thus, the total stock held by spinning mills and stockists including the stock of cotton sold but not delivered on 28th February 2021 is estimated at 257.39 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 273.48 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).

  1. CLOSING STOCK AS ON 30TH SEPTEMBER 2021

Closing stock as on 30th September 2021 is estimated by the Committee at 105.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 112.09 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).

CAI Cotton Crop Esti. 20-21 (Feb.21 End) Dt 12-3-21 (PR)