IndiaNew Season Arrivals as on 15/08/2017:
| State wise Arrivals | (Lakh Bales)2016-17
|
| Punjab | 09.00 |
| Haryana | 21.00 |
| Rajasthan | 18.00 |
| Gujarat | 82.71 |
| Maharashtra | 96.37 |
| M. P. | 21.00 |
| A.P. | 18.69 |
| Telengana | 49.75 |
| Karnataka | 16.18 |
| Orrissa | 03.00 |
| Other | 02.40 |
| Total | 338.10 |
– Source Just Agri
Cotton Sowing Report as on 17/08/2017
| State | Central Agri Ministry
(Lakh hact.) |
|
| 2017-18 | 2016-17 | |
| Punjab | 03.85 | 02.56 |
| Haryana | 06.56 | 04.98 |
| Rajasthan | 05.03 | 03.86 |
| Gujarat | 26.51 | 23.13 |
| Maharashtra | 41.38 | 39.00 |
| M. P. | 05.76 | 05.99 |
| A.P. | 04.98 | 03.75 |
| Telengana | 17.89 | 12.50 |
| Karnataka | 04.33 | 04.28 |
| Tamilnadu | 00.12 | 00.06 |
| Other | 01.74 | 01.43 |
| Total | 118.15 | 101.55 |
Weather Report:
IMD weekly weather report 01st Jun to 16th Aug 2017
COTTONGURUTM Comments:
Indian cotton crop continues to depend heavily on weather conditions. Although amount of sowing is a significant factor in estimation of cotton crop, it is the ‘yield’ which is the key factor for determining the final crop. The below mentioned historical data of last 7 years corroborates this fact.
The above chart clearly indicates that figures of sowing can be misleading as far as the final cotton crop arrivals are concerned. For eg. Sowing figure were similar during season 2012-13 and 2013-14 (approx. 119 lakh hectares) but the difference in final crop output was 2.7 million bales ! Similarly, sowing was less by about 12% in 2016-17 compared to 2015-16 but the final cotton production is higher !!
It is too early to determine the crop estimate of India. Beginning of July, inspired by high sowing estimates of about 120 lakh hectares, many trade analysts and buyer lobbies declared that Indian crop will not be less than 40 million bales. In July end, when there were reports of floods in parts of Gujarat, Punjab and Rajasthan, and draught in parts of Karnataka and Maharashtra, the cotton crop figure was revised to 38 to 39 million bales. In first fortnight of August, there were reports of deficient rainfall in many parts of North India, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, M.P. and Karnataka. Apart from these, there were reports of pest attacks in Punjab and Haryana (white fly) and Maharashtra and Telangana (Pink balworm) compelling the ‘ analysts and buyer lobbies’ to revise their crop estimates to “ not less than 36.5 to 37 million bales”. Meanwhile many seller lobbies continued to project a glum picture of Indian crop.
Since last week, monsoon has revived in most cotton growing centres of India (except Karnataka) enticing many analysts to again post a rosy picture of Indian cotton crop. The best time to estimate the Indian crop will be at the September, although final estimate can be derived only by Nov, sometimes even later like in 2013-14. During 2013-14 season, due to better prices in cotton compared to other agro- commodities and some rains in Nov, Dec and Jan, farmers did not remove the cotton plants from their fields. As a result, we had about 3 to 4 million additional bales of average quality cotton in India which was not considered in early estimates.
The situation in Karnataka continues to be serious especially in the Extra long staple (ELS) belt of Hubli to Chitradurga. Soil moisture is low throughout the state and immediate rains are the need of the hour for this rain-starved state to prevent a draught-like situation.
Domestic Market Summary:
There is a vigorous price war between the old crop and new crop cotton. New crop prices have seen a significant fall in futures following reports of excellent sowing and a favourable monsoon. Old crop prices continue to hold its fort following a shortfall in current physical cotton stock, especially of good quality cotton. Spinning mills are in a dilemma as the yarn prices are not supportive both in domestic and export market and fabric demand is yet to pick up post GST. September will be a crucial month to determine who wins this war.
Prices of most Indian cotton varieties remained stable during the last fortnight. Both buying and selling is limited. News season (2017-18) seed cotton arrivals have started in parts of Punjab and Haryana and are expected to pick up by 1st week of Sep. Arrivals in Gujarat, Maharashtra and Telangana are expected to start by early October but ginners are of the opinion that good quality cotton will be available only after the Indian festival of Diwali i.e.by Oct end.
Export-Import:
Export activity continues to be slow since quite some time following higher prices and lower availability of Indian cotton. Good crop estimates in the new season and availability of Indian cotton at a reasonably low price in the futures have prompted some Indian exporters to sell the new crop.
Yarn:
International Market Summary:
All agro commodities, including cotton, continue to be influenced by weather conditions around the world. ICE cotton gained a little due to fears of cotton crop damage in South Texas from a potential hurricane.
China:
China Mills average cotton stock holding increased as in August 2017 compared to last month. Average cotton stock including port arrivals held by sampled mills increased By 6.5 Days to 37.6 Days from Last month but reduced 0.2 Days from ayear ago. The National Cotton Industry inventory isabout 798,000 tons, an increase of
21.1% over last month, and 1.5% since last year.
US:
Texas crop condition index:
US and Texas cotton crop condition keeps getting higher. Yield is expected to be equivalent to 2016 which is higher than the 5 year average. USDA showed a good crop progress in cotton. A tropical depressions expected to develop into a cyclone very shortly.
Pakistan:
Pak Government has revised down cotton output production by 10.26 % to 12.60 million bales for 2017-18 over previous target of 14.04 million bales. The country’s biggest crop producer Punjab fell short of targeted cultivation area by 11.4 % mainly due to shortage of water. The cotton crop size for Punjab is now projected at 8.80 million bales, followed by Sindh (3.70 million bales) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan with 0.10 million bales each. Cotton production was recorded at 10.6 million bales during the crop year of 2016-17.Due to nominal carry-forward stocks and depleting cotton reserves of China, India and US, prices of domestic cotton are expected to remain stable during the season.
Egypt:-
Exports of Egypt’s prized cotton will hit 38,000 tons in the 2016-17 season ending this month, up 19 % on last year’s total, the head of a cotton exporting council told Reuters, as Egypt looks to win back market share lost after a 2011 uprising.
Production of Egyptian long-staple cotton, famously used for luxury linens, has fallen sharply since political upheaval 6 years ago led to less enforcement of regulations, degrading the crop’s quality.
Last year Egypt banned all but the highest quality cotton seed in order to save its historic crop, dramatically reducing the area under cultivation to about 130,000 acres, a more than 100-year low.
Egypt is now looking to scale that cultivation back up. The area planted rose to about 220,000 acres this year and is expected to hit up to 500,000 acres in the next two to three years, according to cotton traders.
-Reuters
Reports:
USDA (WASDE):
WASDE projects December would fall to 61-62 cents. Long-range weather forecast suggests crop will fall 1.5 million bales lower to 19.0 million bales.
Cotton Advisory Board (CAB):
| CAB Balance sheet (Meeting 18th August 2017) | (Lakh Bales) 2016-17 |
| Opening | 36:44 |
| Crop | 345.00 |
| Import | 26.00 |
| Export | 60.00 |
| Consumption | 311.50 |
| Ending Stock | 35.94 |
CAB PRODUCTION:
| State wise Production | (Lakh Bales)2016-17 |
| Punjab | 09.00 |
| Haryana | 20.50 |
| Rajasthan | 16.50 |
| Gujarat | 95.00 |
| Maharashtra | 88.50 |
| M. P. | 20.50 |
| A.P. | 19.00 |
| Telengana | 48.00 |
| Karnataka | 18.00 |
| Orrissa | 03.00 |
| Other | 07.00 |
| Total | 345.00 |
