Cotton Association of India (CAI) has released its January estimate of the cotton crop for the Season 2020-21 beginning on 1st October 2020.
CAI has retained its cotton crop estimate for the 2020-21 Season at 360 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each which is equivalent to 382.50 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each. The state-wise break-up of the cotton Production and Balance Sheet for the Season with the corresponding data for the previous crop year are enclosed.
The total cotton supply during the months of October 2020 to January 2021 is estimated by the CAI at 386.25 lakh bales of 170 Kgs. each i.e. 410.39 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each, which comprises the arrivals of 255.25 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (i.e. 271.20 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) during the months of October 2020 to January 2021, import of cotton estimated at 6.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (6.38 lakh running bales of 160 kgs .each) upto 31st January 2020 and opening stock at the beginning of the cotton season on 1st October 2020 estimated by the CAI at 125.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs .each (i.e. 132.81 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption during the months of October 2020 to January 2021 at 110.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each i.e. 116.88 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each while the export shipment of cotton estimated by the CAI upto 31st January 2021 is 29 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (i.e. 30.81 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). Stocks at the end of January 2021 are estimated by the CAI at 247.25 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (i.e. 262.70 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
The CAI Crop Committee has estimated the total cotton supply till the end of the cotton season 2020-21 i.e. upto 30th September 2021 at 499 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 530.19 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The total cotton supply consists of the opening stock of 125 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each at the beginning of the Season on 1st October 2020, crop for the Season estimated at 360 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each and imports estimated by the CAI at 14 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 14.88 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each), which are less by 1.50 bales of 170 kgs. each than 15.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (16.47 lakh running bales) estimated for the previous cotton season 2019-20.
Domestic consumption has now been estimated by the CAI at 330 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 350.63 lakh running bales of 160 kgs .each) i.e. at the same level as estimated in the previous month. There is an increase of 80 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each in the cotton consumption compared to the previous crop year’s consumption estimate of 250 lakh bales. The consumption is expected to reach its normal level this year after the disruptions and labour shortage caused on account of the lockdown imposed in the country to arrest spread of COVID-19 pandemic.
The CAI has estimated exports for the Season at 54 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 57.38 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) as against 50 lakh bales of 170 Kgs. each estimated for the previous cotton season. The carry-over stock at the end of the cotton season 2020-21 is estimated by the CAI at 115 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 122.19 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) as against 107.50 lakh bales (114.22 lakh running bales of 170 kgs. each) at the end of the previous cotton season 2019-20.
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HIGHLIGHTS OF DELIBERATIONS HELD BY THE CROP COMMITTEE OF COTTON ASSOCIATION OF INDIA ON 6TH FEBRUARY 2021
The Crop Committee of Cotton Association of India (CAI) held its meeting on 6th February 2021 by video conferencing. In all, 24 members representing all cotton producing states and stakeholders, who attended this meeting, arrived at the January estimate of the cotton crop for the 2020-21 season beginning on 1st October 2020 and drawn the estimated cotton balance sheet based on the data available from various trade sources, upcountry associations and other stakeholders.
The following are the highlights of the deliberations of the Crop Committee of the CAI:
- CONSUMPTION
The CAI has retained its consumption estimate for the current crop year at the same level as estimated in the last month i.e. 330.00 lakh bales. The consumption for the previous season was estimated at 250 lakh bales due to the disruptions caused on account of COVID-19 Pandemic. Consumption is now expected to reach the pre-lockdown level of 330 bales during the 2020-21 Season.
Upto 31st January 2021, the consumption is estimated at 110 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 116.88 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
- PRODUCTION
The CAI has maintained its cotton production estimate for the season 2020-21 at the same level as estimated previously i.e. at 360 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 382.50 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each. The crop estimated now for 2020-21 Season is at the same level as estimated for the previous year.
The Committee members will have a close watch on the cotton arrivals in the subsequent months and if any addition or reduction is required to be made in the production estimate, the same will be made in the CAI reports.
- IMPORTS
The estimate of the cotton imports into India has been maintained by the CAI at the same level as estimated in the previous month i.e. at 14.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 14.88 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) which are less by 1.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each from 15.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each estimated for the 2019-20 crop year. Upto 31st January 2021, about 6 lakh cotton bales of 170 kgs. each are estimated to have arrived the Indian Ports.
- EXPORTS
The CAI has estimated the cotton exports for the 2020-21 Season at 54 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (57.38 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) against the previous year’s export estimate of 50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (53.13 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each)
Upto 31st January 2021, 29 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (30.81 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) are estimated to have been shipped.
- ARRIVALS
Indian cotton arrivals during the months of October 2020 to January 2021 are estimated at 255.25 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each which are equivalent to 271.20 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each.
- STOCK AS ON 31ST JANUARY 2021
The cotton stocks held by mills in their godowns on 31st January 2021 are estimated at 75 lakh bales (equivalent to 79.69 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The mills have on an average about 82 days’ cotton stock in their godowns.
The CCI, Maharashtra Federation, MNCs, Ginners, Traders. MCX, etc. are estimated to have the total stock of about 172.25 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each as on 31st January 2021 which is equal to about 183.02 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each.
Thus, the total stock held by spinning mills and stockists on 31st January 2021 is estimated at 247.25 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each which is equal to about 262.70 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each.
- CLOSING STOCK AS ON 30TH SEPTEMBER 2021
Closing stock as on 30th September 2020 is estimated by the Committee at 115 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each which is equivalent to about 122.19 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each.
