Cotton Association of India (CAI) has released its December estimate of the cotton crop for the Season 2020-21 beginning on 1st October 2020.
CAI has increased its cotton crop estimate for the 2020-21 season by 2.50 lakh bales to 358.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (i.e. 380.91 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each) from its previous estimate of 356 lakh bales of 170 kgs each ( i.e. 378.25 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each) made during last month. The state-wise break-up of cotton production and Balance Sheet for 2020-21 season with the corresponding data for the previous crop year are enclosed.
Total cotton supply estimated by the CAI during the months of October to December 2020 is 327.35 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each i.e. 347.81 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each, which comprises of the arrivals of 197.85 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (i.e. 210.22 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) during the months of October to December 2020, imports of cotton estimated at 4.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (4.78 lakh running bales of 160 kgs .each) upto 31st December 2020 and opening stock as on 1st October 2020, in which the Committee has made one-time increase from 107.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs each to 125.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (i.e. equivalent to 132.81 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each on account of an inadvertent error crept in not accounting the stock of sold but not delivered cotton of Government agencies viz. CCI and Maharashtra Federation at the close of the previous cotton year.
Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption during the months of October to December 2020 at 82.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 87.66 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each) while export shipments of cotton estimated by the CAI upto 31st December 2020, are estimated at 20 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 21.25 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each).
Stock at the end of December 2020 is estimated by the CAI at 224.85 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (238.90 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each) including 65.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 69.06 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) held by mills in their godowns on 31st December 2020 and 159.85 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (169.84 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each held by CCI, Maharashtra Federation, MNCs, Ginners etc.
The CAI Crop Committee has estimated the total cotton supply till end of the cotton season 2020-21 that is upto 30th September 2021, at 497.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 528.59 lakh running bales of 160kgs each). This consists of the revised opening stock of 125.00 lakh bales of 170 each at the beginning of the season on 1st October 2020, crop for the season estimated at 358.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs each ( equivalent to 380.91 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each) and imports estimated by the CAI at 14 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 14.88 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each). The imports estimated for the cotton season 2020-21 are less by 1.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (16.47 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each) estimated for the previous crop year.
Domestic Consumption has now been estimated by the CAI at 330 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 350.63 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each) i.e. at the same level as estimated previously. There is an increase of 80 lakh bales of 170 kgs each in the cotton consumption for the cotton season 2020-21 from previous year’s consumption estimate of 250 lakh bales. The consumption is estimated to reach its normal level this year after the disruption and labour shortage caused on account of the lockdown imposed in the country. The CAI has estimated exports for the season at 54 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 57.38 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each). The carry-over stock at the end of the cotton season 2020-21 is estimated by the CAI at 113.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 120.59 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
HIGHLIGHTS OF DELIBERATIONS HELD BY THE CROP COMMITTEE OF COTTON ASSOCIATION OF INDIA ON 6TH JANUARY 2021
Crop Committee of Cotton Association of India (CAI) held its meeting on 6th January 2021 by video conferencing where 27 members representing all cotton producing states and stakeholders, who attended this meeting, arrived at the December estimate of the cotton crop for the 2020-21 season beginning on 1st October 2020 and drew an estimated cotton balance sheet based on the data available from various trade sources, upcountry associations and other stakeholders.
The following are the highlights of deliberations of the Crop Committee of the CAI: –
- CONSUMPTION
The CAI has retained its consumption estimate for the current crop year at the same level as estimated in the last month i.e. 330.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 350.63 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The consumption for the previous season was estimated at 250 lakh bales due to the disruptions caused on account of COVID-19 pandemic. Consumption is now expected to reach the pre-lockdown level of 330 lakh bales during the 2020-21 season.
Upto 31st December 2020, consumption is estimated at 82.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 87.66 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
- PRODUCTION
The CAI has increased its cotton production estimate for the season 2020-21 by 2.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs each to 358.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 380.91 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each) as against its production estimate of 356 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 378.25 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each) made earlier.
The Committee members will closely monitor the cotton arrivals in the subsequent months and if any addition or reduction is required to be made in the production estimate, the same will be made in the CAI reports.
- IMPORTS
The estimate of the cotton imports into India has been maintained by the CAI at the same level as estimated in the previous month i.e. at 14.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 14.88 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) which is less by 1.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each from 15.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each estimated for the 2019-20 crop year.
Upto 31st December 2020, about 4.50 lakh cotton bales of 170 kgs. each are estimated to have arrived at Indian ports.
- EXPORTS
The CAI has maintained its exports estimate for the 2020-21 season at 54 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 57.38 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each) i.e. at the same level as estimated in the previous month, against the previous year’s export estimate of 50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 53.13 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each)
Upto 31st December 2020, 20 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (21.25 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) are estimated to have been shipped.
5) ARRIVALS
Indian cotton arrivals during the months of October to December 2020 are estimated at 197.85 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each which are equivalent to 210.22 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each.
6) STOCK AS ON 31ST DECEMBER 2020
Cotton stock held by mills in their godowns on 31st December 2020 is estimated at 65.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 69.06 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). Mills have on an average about 72 days’ cotton stock in their godowns.
CCI, Maharashtra Federation, MNCs, Ginners, MCX, etc are estimated to have stock of about 159.85 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each as on 31st December 2020 which is equivalent to about 169.84 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each.
Thus, total stock held by spinning mills and stockists on 31st December 2020 is estimated at 224.85 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each, which is equal to about 238.90 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each.
7) CLOSING STOCK AS ON 30TH SEPTEMBER 2021
Closing stock as on 30th September 2021 is estimated by the Committee at 113.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each which is equivalent to about 120.59 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each.
