ICAC Report Projects Global Cotton Trade to Reach 10.3 Million Tonnes by 2028/29
2026 World Cotton Trade Report forecasts steady trade growth despite tighter production, inventory pressures, and evolving global trade dynamics.
The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has published the 2026 World Cotton Trade Report, providing an overview of global cotton trade patterns, import and export developments, key trading relationships, and the policy and geopolitical factors shaping international cotton flows.
Available free through the end of 2026, the report indicates that global cotton trade is expected to maintain an upward trend over the medium term, despite growing supply-side pressures. Global trade for the 2025/26 season is estimated at 9.4 million tonnes, representing a 2% increase over the previous season. The report projects trade to rise to 9.6 million tonnes before reaching approximately 10.3 million tonnes by the conclusion of the 2028/29 season.
According to the report, the narrowing balance between global cotton production and consumption is expected to be a key factor supporting future trade growth. In the 2026/27 season, global cotton production is projected to decline by 2% to 25.8 million tonnes, while global consumption is expected to remain comparatively strong at 25.5 million tonnes.
As production and consumption move closer together, international markets are expected to rely increasingly on inventories held by major exporting countries. Any additional rise in demand would require exporters to reduce ending stocks, resulting in greater volumes of cotton moving through international trade channels.
The report notes that developments in China, the world's largest cotton-consuming country, will continue to influence global trade patterns. Continued expansion in China's textile manufacturing sector and consumer demand could increase cotton imports and provide further support for international trade.
Key findings from the report include:
- Global cotton trade is estimated at 9.4 million tonnes in 2025/26 and projected to reach 10.3 million tonnes by 2028/29.
- Brazil remained the world's largest cotton lint exporter in 2025/26, supported by record production, competitive pricing, expanded market access, and reduced availability of U.S. cotton in international markets.
- U.S. cotton exports declined in 2025/26 but are projected to increase by 3% in 2026/27, supported by higher ending stocks.
- China's cotton imports are expected to recover strongly in 2025/26 after declining sharply during the previous season.
- Bangladesh continues to rank among the world's leading cotton importers, although its consumption and imports have been affected by economic disruption, energy constraints, and logistical challenges.
- Vietnam is further strengthening its position as a major cotton importer, supported by the continued growth of its textile and apparel industry and expanding trade relationships.
- India's cotton import and consumption patterns continue to be influenced by policy measures, tariff changes, and rising domestic textile demand.
“Global cotton trade is entering a period in which supply constraints, inventory levels, policy decisions, and consumption trends will play an increasingly important role,” said Parkhi Vats, ICAC Principal Statistician and Data Architect and author of the World Cotton Trade Report. “While production challenges and geopolitical uncertainty remain significant, the medium-term outlook points to continued growth in trade as markets respond to stable consumption and shifting sourcing relationships.”
The report also highlights the influence of tariffs, trade agreements, logistics bottlenecks, energy costs, and evolving supplier relationships on global cotton value chains and purchasing decisions. It identifies disruptions affecting shipments through the Strait of Hormuz as a significant logistical concern for international cotton trade.