GTRI Anticipates 1.2% Dip in Global Trade Due to Geopolitical Turbulence

According to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), the growth in the global merchandise trade is expected to decrease by 1.2%, based on value terms, due to current geopolitical uncertainties. GTRI's findings revealed that in 2023, the US dollar value of world merchandise trade contracted by 5% to $24.01 trillion. However, this decline was counteracted by a significant uptick in the commercial services trade, which surged by nine per cent to $7.54 trillion. Despite the World Trade Organization (WTO) forecasting a 2.6% increase in trade volume for 2024, GTRI anticipates a continued dip in the value of world merchandise trade by 1.2% compared to 2023 figures. Ajay Srivastava, the founder of GTRI, emphasised the distinction between trade volume and trade value, highlighting the complexities involved in accurately assessing trade performance. The WTO projects a growth of 2.6% in world merchandise trade volume in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025, emphasising the need for a comprehensive evaluation of trade dynamics beyond simplistic quantitative measures.