Global Cotton Trade Forecast to Recover as India and China Boost Import Demand: ICAC Report
July 2026 Cotton This Month projects higher global cotton consumption and trade in 2026/27 despite lower production, with India and China driving import growth.
The July 2026 issue of Cotton This Month presents an overview of the global cotton market, indicating that consumption and international trade are expected to strengthen despite a modest decline in production during the 2026/27 season.
According to the report, global cotton production for the 2025/26 season is estimated at 26.5 million tonnes, representing a 3% increase over the previous season. Global consumption is projected at 25.3 million tonnes, up 1.6% year-on-year.
For the 2026/27 season, global cotton production is forecast to decline by 2% to 25.9 million tonnes, while consumption is expected to rise by approximately 1% to 25.5 million tonnes. Global cotton trade is projected to increase 2.6% to 9.6 million tonnes.
The report outlines several factors expected to influence the market, including improving demand for cotton consumption despite tighter production prospects. It also notes continued pressure on cotton acreage as growers respond to weaker profitability, higher production costs and competition from alternative crops. Climate-related challenges, including heat, irregular rainfall and increasing pest pressures, continue to affect production decisions. Another significant trend identified is the shift in global import demand led by India and a recovering Chinese market.
India Records Higher Cotton Import Demand
According to the report, India has emerged as one of the leading contributors to global cotton demand. Cotton lint imports are projected to reach approximately 1 million tonnes during the 2025/26 season, marking a 42% increase compared to the previous season and the highest level recorded by the country.
The increase follows policy measures including temporary reductions in import duties and exemptions for extra-long staple cotton, which improved access to imported fibre and supported domestic consumption.
China's Imports Expected to Rebound
China is projected to regain its position as the world's largest cotton importer during the 2026/27 season, accounting for an estimated 19% of global cotton imports.
After recording an eight-year low in imports during the previous season, China's cotton lint imports are expected to increase by approximately 42% in 2025/26, supported by additional import quotas, higher domestic cotton prices and continued consumption requirements.
Trade Flows Continue to Shift
The report states that Brazil has strengthened its position as China's largest cotton supplier, accounting for approximately 52% of China's cotton imports during the current season. Australia has become China's second-largest supplier, while U.S.-China trade policies continue to influence international cotton trade patterns and market competitiveness.
It also reviews recent policy developments, including China's suspension of tariffs introduced since March 2025 and new commitments to purchase U.S. agricultural products.
USDA Introduces Great American Cotton Plan
The report highlights the launch of the Great American Cotton Plan by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, an initiative aimed at increasing domestic demand for American-grown cotton and cotton products, strengthening the cotton value chain and improving returns for growers.
The programme includes the "Plant Not Plastic" initiative, which promotes cotton-based products as alternatives to synthetic fibres, along with support for the proposed Buying American Cotton Act.
ICAC Price Outlook
Based on current supply and demand projections, the ICAC Secretariat forecasts the Cotlook A Index for the 2026/27 season to range between 66 and 85 cents per pound, with a midpoint of 75.7 cents per pound.
The report also notes that the ICAC Statistical Data Portal is updated continuously throughout the month to provide the latest statistical information.
The author of Cotton This Month is Parkhi Vats, Principal Statistician & Data Architect at ICAC. The next issue of Cotton This Month is scheduled for release on August 1, 2026.