Global Cotton Production Expected to Exceed Consumption in 2026/27, Says ICAC; Weather and Pest Risks Remain

ICAC projects global cotton output at 26.2 million tonnes against consumption of 25.9 million tonnes, while highlighting production risks and regional market developments.

Global cotton production is projected to reach 26.2 million tonnes during the 2026/27 season, slightly exceeding the estimated global consumption of 25.9 million tonnes, according to the September 2026 edition of Cotton This Month, published by the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC).

The report notes that despite the expected production surplus, early-season challenges such as weather volatility and pest pressures could reduce the supply buffer as the crop season progresses.

Global Cotton Supply Outlook

According to ICAC, historical trends indicate that global production estimates generally decline by around 100,000 tonnes from initial forecasts as crop conditions become clearer.

Based on normal seasonal developments, the organization expects 2026/27 global cotton production to ease to approximately 26.0–26.1 million tonnes. Larger downward revisions remain possible if significant weather disruptions or widespread pest outbreaks occur during the season.

Regional Cotton Market Highlights

China

China continues to release cotton from its state reserves, with sales beginning on July 20 and averaging around 8,000 tonnes per auction. These sales have improved short-term domestic cotton availability.

However, ICAC notes that future reserve replenishment, combined with potential weather-related risks in Xinjiang, could result in higher import demand later in the season.

India

ICAC has revised 2025/26 cotton production estimates upward to 5.5 million tonnes, representing a 9% increase, while consumption has been raised to nearly 5.9 million tonnes, up 7%.

The increase is attributed to strong domestic mill demand and growth in textile exports.

The report also highlights the Indian government's five-year Cotton Mission, along with digital initiatives including the Kapas Kisan app, which has enrolled more than 4.1 million farmers, and Kasturi Cotton Bharat's blockchain traceability framework, as measures supporting long-term sector stability.

Pakistan

Cotton production in Pakistan continues to face challenges from climate variability, pest infestations, poor seed quality, and high input costs.

Production is estimated at 1.15 million tonnes in 2025/26, a 4% decline, and is projected to decrease further to 1.10 million tonnes during 2026/27, increasing the country's dependence on raw cotton imports.

United States

The report revises U.S. planted cotton area upward to 3.3 million hectares, a 5% increase, resulting in a projected 2026/27 production of 2.9 million tonnes.

ICAC also notes that recently implemented U.S. Section 301 tariffs (10% to 12.5%) are influencing global trade patterns. Manufacturing hubs such as Vietnam may face increased costs, potentially prompting buyers to reassess sourcing strategies.

Cotton Price Forecast

The ICAC Secretariat projects the 2026/27 Cotlook A Index to trade within a range of 62 to 99 cents per pound, with a midpoint forecast of 78 cents per pound.

The report was prepared by Parkhi Vats, Principal Statistician & Data Architect at ICAC.

The next edition of Cotton This Month is scheduled for release on October 1, 2026, with ongoing statistical updates available through the ICAC Data Portal.