Global Cotton Output to Surpass Consumption in 2026/27 as China Drives Production Growth

ICAC report highlights steady production levels, declining trade, and shifting market dynamics amid global challenges

Global cotton production for the 2026/27 season is projected to reach 25.9 million tonnes, slightly exceeding consumption estimated at 25.2 million tonnes. According to the May 2026 issue of Cotton This Month, overall market levels are expected to remain close to the current season. However, global trade volumes are forecast to decline.

Several factors are influencing market conditions. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could disrupt fertilizer supply chains, potentially raising input costs for cotton producers. In the United States, severe drought conditions are affecting most cotton-growing regions, increasing the likelihood of crop abandonment. At the same time, rising prices for synthetic fibers may enhance cotton’s competitiveness. In China, favorable growing conditions are expected to support strong yields.

China is projected to remain the largest global cotton producer, with output nearing 7 million tonnes, and the leading consumer, accounting for 32% of global usage.

On the trade front, Brazil is expected to lead global exports, followed by the United States and Australia. Bangladesh is forecast to retain its position as the largest importer at 1.8 million tonnes, with China, Vietnam, Pakistan, and Türkiye also among the key importing countries.

Global ending stocks are projected to increase by 4% to 17.9 million tonnes in 2026/27. This rise reflects higher production levels and increased imports, particularly in China.

The ICAC Secretariat’s Cotlook A price forecast for the 2025/26 season ranges from 73 to 84 cents per pound, with a midpoint of 78 cents per pound. ICAC’s price projections are made by Ms Lorena Ruiz, ICAC Economist.

For updated data, users can access ICAC’s Statistical Data Portal, which is continuously updated.

The report Cotton This Month is authored by Parkhi Vats, Principal Statistician and Data Architect at ICAC. The next issue is scheduled for release on June 1, 2026.