Global Cotton Consumption to Exceed Production in 2026/27 as Asian Demand Remains Resilient

ICAC projects global cotton output at 25.75 million tonnes against consumption of 26.10 million tonnes, indicating a shift towards inventory drawdown

Global cotton consumption is projected to exceed production during the 2026/27 season as output declines in several major producing countries while demand remains relatively stable. According to the November edition of Cotton This Month, published by the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), global production is estimated at 25.75 million tonnes, down approximately 4% from 26.85 million tonnes in 2025/26.

Global consumption is forecast to increase slightly to 26.10 million tonnes, compared with 25.89 million tonnes in the previous season. The projections indicate a production shortfall of approximately 353,000 tonnes, reversing the previous season’s surplus of nearly 961,000 tonnes and suggesting a modest reduction in global cotton inventories.

Production Declines Across Major Cotton Suppliers

The lower global production forecast reflects weaker crop prospects in several major cotton-producing countries.

China’s cotton production is projected to decline by approximately 4%, from 7.5 million tonnes to 7.2 million tonnes. Brazil’s output is expected to fall by around 2%, from 4.25 million tonnes to 4.10 million tonnes.

Production in Pakistan is forecast to decrease by approximately 17%, while the United States is expected to record a decline of about 4%.

India’s production is projected to remain stable at 5.3 million tonnes. Meanwhile, West African output is expected to increase modestly to approximately 954,000 tonnes.

Weather-related uncertainties remain a concern, particularly in India and West Africa. Irregular rainfall, drought, excessive moisture and pest pressure could affect yields and lead to further revisions as the season progresses.

Asian Textile Industries Support Cotton Consumption

Despite the weaker production outlook, global cotton consumption is expected to remain resilient, supported mainly by textile manufacturing activity across Asia.

China is projected to remain the world’s largest cotton consumer, with consumption estimated at approximately 8.53 million tonnes in 2026/27. India follows with projected consumption of 5.9 million tonnes, broadly unchanged from the previous season and among the country’s highest recorded levels.

Other Asian markets are also expected to contribute to demand growth:

• Pakistan: Cotton consumption is projected to increase by approximately 5% to 2.1 million tonnes. Following nearly five consecutive seasons of declining consumption, the increase could indicate an early recovery in the country’s textile industry.
• Vietnam: Consumption is forecast at approximately 1.77 million tonnes, with the potential to approach 1.8 million tonnes as the season progresses. Strong yarn exports, particularly to China, and high spinning mill utilisation are supporting demand. Given Vietnam’s reliance on imported cotton, further consumption growth could increase its import requirements.
• Türkiye: Cotton consumption is projected to rise from 1.4 million tonnes to 1.5 million tonnes.

These forecasts underline the importance of Asian textile manufacturing to global cotton demand as consumption is expected to move ahead of production.

Global Cotton Trade Expected to Decline

World cotton exports are projected to decrease by approximately 1.7%, from 9.92 million tonnes in 2025/26 to 9.75 million tonnes in 2026/27.

Brazil is expected to remain the world’s largest cotton exporter, with shipments forecast at 3.15 million tonnes. The United States is projected to export 2.71 million tonnes, followed by Australia at 1.02 million tonnes.

The expected decline in exports comes despite relatively stable global consumption, reflecting differences in domestic supply, purchasing requirements and trade patterns among major producing and consuming countries.

ICAC’s Global Cotton Outlook for 2026/27

The November estimates from ICAC present the following outlook for the global cotton market:

ICAC Projects Cotlook A Index Between 73 and 106 Cents

The ICAC Secretariat forecasts the 2026/27 Cotlook A Index to range between 73 and 106 cents per pound, with a midpoint of 87 cents per pound.

The price projections were prepared by Lorena Ruiz, ICAC Economist.

The November edition of Cotton This Month was authored by Parkhi Vats, Principal Statistician & Data Architect at ICAC. The next issue is scheduled for release on December 1, 2026.