Global Cotton Consumption Expected to Exceed Production in 2026/27

ICAC projects lower production, exports and ending stocks alongside a 1.1% rise in global cotton consumption

Global cotton consumption is projected to exceed production in the 2026/27 season, according to the latest estimates from the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC). Global production is expected to decline mainly due to reduced cotton area across most major producing countries, while consumption is projected to increase.

Global cotton production is forecast at approximately 25.94 million tonnes in 2026/27, down 3.8% from 26.98 million tonnes in 2025/26. Consumption is expected to rise by approximately 1.1%, from 25.85 million tonnes to 26.14 million tonnes.

The projections indicate a change in the global cotton supply-demand balance. In 2025/26, production is estimated to have exceeded consumption by approximately 1.13 million tonnes. For 2026/27, consumption is projected to exceed production by approximately 201,000 tonnes.

Global Cotton Trade Expected to Decline

Global cotton exports are projected to decrease modestly in 2026/27, falling from approximately 9.87 million tonnes to 9.70 million tonnes, a decline of around 1.7%.

The expected reduction in international trade comes alongside higher global cotton consumption, indicating that mill use is projected to strengthen even as global export volumes ease.

Ending Stocks Projected Lower

Global ending stocks are forecast to decline from approximately 17.70 million tonnes in 2025/26 to 17.50 million tonnes in 2026/27, representing a decrease of around 1.1%.

Lower production combined with higher consumption and declining ending stocks points to a tighter global cotton balance in the coming season.

West African Cotton Sector Continues to Expand

The October issue of Cotton This Month also examines the long-term development of the cotton sector in West Africa.

The region's average annual cotton production has increased from approximately 27,000 tonnes in the 1940s to more than 1 million tonnes in the 2020s. Much of the increase has been driven by expansion in cotton-growing area rather than higher yields.

For 2026/27, West African cotton production is projected to increase by approximately 6% to 960,000 tonnes, with nearly all of the region's production expected to be exported.

The report identifies several challenges affecting further growth, including farm-gate prices, access to production inputs, pest pressure and erratic weather. It also examines opportunities to improve productivity and increase value capture within the region.

Côte d’Ivoire Sees Yield Improvement

The report highlights Côte d’Ivoire as an example of potential productivity gains. Cotton yields in the country increased from approximately 259 kg/ha in 2022/23 to 483 kg/ha in 2025/26.

The increase was supported by improved pest management, better access to production inputs and adaptations to changing rainfall patterns.

The analysis also identifies opportunities for West African countries to capture more value from cotton through domestic processing, cotton by-products, biochar and Bokashi, as well as through emerging export relationships.

India increased imports from several West African origins in 2025/26, while expanded zero-tariff access to the Chinese market could create additional opportunities for African cotton exporters.

2026/27 Global Cotton Outlook

ICAC's latest estimates are:

The projections indicate relatively modest year-on-year changes across the major global indicators, but the relationship between supply and use is expected to change as consumption moves above production.

Cotlook A Index Price Forecast

The ICAC Secretariat forecasts the 2026/27 Cotlook A Index price to range between 65 and 99 cents per pound, with a midpoint of 80 cents per pound.

The author of Cotton This Month is Parkhi Vats, Principal Statistician & Data Architect at ICAC.

The next issue of Cotton This Month is scheduled for release on 2 November 2026.