Cotton Production Outpaces Use Amid Trade Tensions

In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is projected to remain steady at 25.9 million tonnes, while consumption is also expected to stay unchanged at 25.6 million tonnes, mirroring figures from the previous year. However, international trade is forecast to grow from 9.3 million tonnes to 9.7 million tonnes, reflecting a notable increase in global movement of cotton.

The latest USDA report has prompted a downward revision of US production due to recent heavy rainfall and planting delays in the delta region. At the same time, US export expectations have been revised upward.

On a global scale, both production and consumption face uncertainty:

• Unpredictable and worsening weather patterns threaten cotton cultivation.
• Rising geopolitical tensions are likely to impact overall consumer demand and market confidence.

This edition of Cotton This Month (CTM) also introduces updates on ICAC’s ongoing data rectification project. Revisions to historical data for all countries and regions are now underway. As changes are implemented, they will be reflected in both the ICAC Statistical Database and the public data dashboard.

Based on current supply-demand dynamics, the ICAC Secretariat projects cotton prices for the 2025/26 season to range between 55 and 94 cents per pound, with a midpoint forecast of 72 cents per pound. The price outlook has been prepared by Ms. Lorena Ruiz, ICAC Economist.

The article’s author, Parkhi Vats, Economic Affairs Officer at ICAC, welcomes comments and queries.

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