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CAI FURTHER REDUCES ITS COTTON CROP ESTIMATE FOR 2022-23 SEASON BY 10 LAKH BALES TO 303 LAKH BALES

Published: April 19, 2023
Author: DIGITAL MEDIA EXECUTIVE

Cotton Association of India (CAI) has released its March estimate of the cotton crop for the season 2022-23 beginning from 1st October 2022.  The CAI has reduced its cotton crop estimate for the 2022-23 season to 303 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 321.94 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).  The state-wise break-up of the Cotton Production and Balance Sheet for the season with the corresponding data for the previous crop year are enclosed.

The total cotton supply for the months of October 2022 to March 2023 is estimated at 229.02 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 243.33 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each), which consists of the arrivals of 190.63 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 202.54 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each), imports of 6.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 6.91 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) and the opening stock estimated by the CAI at 31.89 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 33.88 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) at the beginning of the season.

Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption for the months of October 2022 to March 2023 at 149 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 158.31 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) while the export shipments upto 31st March 2023 are estimated by the CAI at 10.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 11.16 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).  Stock at the end of March 2023 is estimated at 69.52 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 73.87 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) including 50.52 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 53.68 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) with textile mills and the remaining 19 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 20.19 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) with the CCI, Maharashtra Federation and others (MNCs, traders, ginners, etc.) including cotton sold but not delivered.

The cotton supply estimated by the CAI till end of the cotton season 2022-23 i.e. upto 30th September 2023 is 349.89 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 371.76 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).  The total cotton supply consists of the opening stock of 31.89 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 33.88 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) at the beginning of the cotton season on 1st October 2022, crop for the season estimated at 303 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 321.94 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) and the imports for the season estimated by the CAI at 15 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 15.94 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) which is 3 lakh bales more than last estimate. The import estimated by the CAI for the corresponding year 2021-22 was at 14 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 14.88 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).

The domestic consumption for the season is estimated at 311 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 330.44 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The CAI has increased its Non-Textiles Mills Consumption estimate by 11 lakh bales. The exports for the season have been estimated at 25.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 26.56 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) i.e. 5 lakh bales lower than estimated previously.  

The exports estimate for the previous cotton season 2021-22 was 43 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 45.69 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).  The carry-over stock which was earlier estimated at 15.89 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 16.88 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) is now estimated at 13.89 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 14.76 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).

HIGHLIGHTS OF DELIBERATIONS HELD BY THE CAI CROP COMMITTEE ON 18TH APRIL 2023

The Crop Committee of the Cotton Association of India (CAI) held its meeting on Tuesday, the 18th April 2023, which was attended by 25 members representing various cotton growing regions of the country.  The Committee arrived at its March estimate of the cotton crop for 2022-23 season and drew the estimated cotton balance sheet based on the data available from various trade sources, upcountry associations and other stakeholders.

The following are the highlights of the deliberations held at this meeting: –

  1. CONSUMPTION

The CAI has estimated its cotton consumption estimate at 311.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 330.44 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).  The previous year’s consumption estimate was 318 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 337.88 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).

Upto 31st March 2023, the consumption is estimated at 149 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 158.31 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).

2. PRODUCTION

The CAI has reduced its production estimate for 2022-23 season by 10 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each to 303 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 321.94 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).  The CAI has reduced its cotton crop in Punjab by 2 lakh bales, Maharashtra by 3.00 lakh bales, Telangana by 5 lakh bales, Andhra Pradesh by 0.50 lakh bales and increased the crop estimate of Orissa state by 0.50 lakh bales.  

The CAI Crop Committee has estimated crop figures and arrivals relating to various states based on the input received in Crop Committee meeting from the members of the following Associations: – 

 

Sr. No.StateMembers / Associations
1PunjabIndian Cotton Association Ltd. (ICAL)
2HaryanaIndian Cotton Association Ltd. (ICAL)
3RajasthanIndian Cotton Association Ltd. (ICAL)
4GujaratGUJCOT Trade Association
5MaharashtraIndian Commodities.Com

Maharashtra Cotton Ginners Association

6Madhya PradeshMadhyanchal Cotton Ginners & Traders Association
7TelanganaTelangana Cotton Millers & Traders Welfare Association
8Andhra PradeshAP Brokers and Ginners
9KarnatakaKarnataka Cotton Association
10Tamil NaduTamil Nadu Cotton Association
11OrissaOdissa Cotton Association

 

The Committee members will have a close watch on the cotton arrivals in the subsequent months and if any addition or reduction is required to be made in the production estimate, the same will be made in the CAI report.

1.IMPORTS

The estimate of cotton imports into India is now estimated at 15 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 15.94 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) which is 3 lakh bales more than estimated previous month and less by 2 lakh bales than the import estimate of 14 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 14.88 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) for the previous crop year 2021-22.

Upto 31st March 2023, about 6.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 6.91 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) are estimated to have arrived the Indian Ports.

2. EXPORTS

The Committee has reduced its cotton exports estimate to 25 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 26.56 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) which is less by 13 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each than the exports estimate of 43.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 45.69 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) for the crop year 2021-22. 

Upto 31st March 2023, about 10.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 11.16 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) are estimated to have been shipped.

  1. ARRIVALS

Indian cotton arrivals during the months of October 2022 to March 2023 are estimated at 190.63 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 202.54 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).

  1. CLOSING STOCK AS ON 30TH SEPTEMBER 2023

Closing stock as on 30th September 2023 is estimated by the Committee at 13.89 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 14.76 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).

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