The forecast for cotton production in India for the current season 2022–2023 has been lowered once further by the Cotton Association of India (CAI) to 298.35 lakh bales weighing 170 kg apiece. Last month, companies representing the weaving sector criticised CAI for decreasing production. According to CAI, its latest estimate is supported by the advice of a 25-member crop committee that has received urgent data from 11 state organisations.
Following the revision of cotton production projections, CAI anticipates an increase in cotton prices to 75,000 per confection weighing 356 kg. However, the downstream industry anticipates that cotton prices won’t increase significantly due to slower developed-world demand, particularly from the US and Europe—the two regions that buy the most clothing and other textiles.
Atul The trade organisation has lowered its production estimate for the 2022–23 season by 4.65 lakh bales to 298.35 lakh bales, according to Ganatra, president of CAI, in a news release. Maharashtra, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, and Odisha may each see a further 2 lakh, 0.5 lakh, and 0.15 lakh bale decrease in production. Other significant states’ output forecasts were not updated by CAI.
According to CAI, the committee members will closely monitor the arrivals and quantities of cotton presses in the upcoming months, and if any adjustments need to be made to the production estimate, they will be made in the ensuing reports.
In a research from March 2023, CAI predicted that 313 lakh bales of cotton would be produced. In the February and January 2023 reports, the output of cotton was forecast to be 321 and 330 lakh bales, respectively. After numerous lower revisions, the production forecast for last year was ultimately set at 307 lakh bales.
The expected supply between October 2022 and April 2023, which comprises of 224.17 lakh arrivals, 7 lakh imports, and the opening stock of 31.89 lakh bales, is estimated at 263.06 lakh bales by CAI. The expected consumption was 179 lakh bales, while the estimated export shipments up to April 30, 2023, were 12 lakh bales. Stock is anticipated to be 72.06 lakh bales at the end of April 2023, with 52.06 lakh bales being held by textile mills and the rest 20 lakh being held by the CCI, Maharashtra Federation, and other parties. (MNCs, traders, ginners, etc).
Total 345.24 lakh bales cotton supply is estimated till end of the current season 2022-23 (October 2022-September 2023). It will consist of the opening stock of 31.89 lakh bales, production of 298.35 lakh bales and imports of 15 lakh bales.
The domestic consumption for the season is estimated at 311 lakh bales, i.e., at the same level estimated previously. The exports for the season have been estimated at 20 lakh bales which are 5 lakh bales lower than estimated previously. Last year, the exports were estimated at 43 lakh bales. The carry-over stock is now estimated at 14.24 lakh bales.