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CareEdge Ratings revises FY27 GDP growth to 7.2% in February 2026 outlook
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Author: TEXTILE VALUE CHAIN
CareEdge Ratings has published its Economic Pathway report for February 2026, outlining updated projections for growth, inflation, trade and fiscal indicators. The report reflects changes following recent trade developments and trends in domestic consumption and external trade.
Key Highlights:
- We have revised our GDP growth to 7.2% in FY27, following the India-US trade deal.
- Domestic consumption momentum stayed healthy with upbeat auto sales in Q3 FY26.
- CPI inflation came at 2.75% in January as per the new 2024 series.
- We project inflation to average at 4.3% in FY27, as the favourable base effect fades.
- Centre targets fiscal deficit-to-GDP to be at 4.3% in FY27.
- Growth in India’s non-petroleum exports eased to 2.7% in Q3 FY26 Vs 8.8% in Q2.
- Exports of all major items except RMG witnessed moderation in Q3 FY26.
- India’s services exports grew 1.4% in Q3 FY26, sharply lower from 8.6% in Q2.
- Healthy services trade surplus and benign crude oil prices to keep CAD-to-GDP at ~1% in FY26 and FY27.
- Recent trade deals - India-US & India-EU to boost India’s trade prospects.
- 10Y G-sec yields remain elevated; Rupee appreciated following the trade deal announcements.
Full Report:
