CAI Estimates India’s 2025–26 Cotton Output at 305 Lakh Bales
India’s cotton output estimated at 305 lakh bales as CAI projects steady supply and rising imports for 2025–26.
The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has issued its first cotton pressing estimate for the 2025–26 season, which commenced on October 1, 2025. Drawing on data from 11 cotton-growing state associations and industry stakeholders, CAI has projected India’s cotton pressing at 305 lakh bales of 170 kg each, equivalent to 320.06 lakh running bales of 162 kg each. The report also includes a state-wise production breakdown and a comprehensive balance sheet comparing figures with the previous crop year.
Cotton Supply and Consumption Overview
For October 2025, total cotton supply is estimated at 93.17 lakh bales (170 kg each), comprising:
- Cotton pressing: 24.58 lakh bales
- Imports: 8 lakh bales
- Opening stock: 60.59 lakh bales
CAI has pegged monthly consumption at 25 lakh bales, while exports during October stood at 1.5 lakh bales. The closing stock for the month is expected to be 66.67 lakh bales, including 39 lakh bales held by textile mills and 27.67 lakh bales with CCI, Maharashtra Federation, traders, exporters, and other market participants.
Seasonal Supply Outlook for 2025–26
The total cotton supply for the full season (up to September 30, 2026) is projected at 410.59 lakh bales (170 kg each), marking an increase from 392.59 lakh bales last year. This estimate includes:
- Opening stock: 60.59 lakh bales
- Cotton pressing: 305 lakh bales
- Imports: 45 lakh bales
The import estimate for 2025–26 has risen by 4 lakh bales from the previous year.
Domestic consumption is projected at 300 lakh bales, while exports are expected to fall slightly to 17 lakh bales, compared to 18 lakh bales last season.
Highlights from CAI Crop Committee Meeting (10 November 2025)
The CAI Crop Committee, comprising 18 representatives from key cotton-growing regions, convened virtually on November 10, 2025. The committee finalized the first pressing estimate and prepared the balance sheet for the season based on regional inputs.
1. Cotton Consumption
The total cotton consumption for the 2025–26 season is projected at 300 lakh bales (170 kg each), slightly lower than 314 lakh bales recorded in 2024–25.
By October 31, 2025, the consumption is estimated at 25 lakh bales.
2. Cotton Pressing
The cotton pressing estimate for 2025–26 stands at 305 lakh bales, down from 312.40 lakh bales last year. The committee will closely monitor monthly updates and adjust the estimates if necessary in future reports.
3. Imports
Cotton imports are forecast at 45 lakh bales for the season, compared to 41 lakh bales in 2024–25. By the end of October, about 8 lakh bales had already arrived at Indian ports.
4. Exports
Exports for 2025–26 are projected at 17 lakh bales, a slight dip from 18 lakh bales last season. As of October 31, 2025, around 1.5 lakh bales had been shipped.
5. Closing Stock
The closing stock at the end of the 2025–26 season (September 30, 2026) is estimated at 93.59 lakh bales, marking an increase of 33 lakh bales compared to 60.59 lakh bales recorded at the end of 2024–25.