APAC resilience amid trade flux: CareEdge webinar insights

CareEdge Global recently hosted a webinar titled “Divergent Growth Trends in APAC amid Global Trade Flux,” where economists and strategists examined the positioning of Asia-Pacific economies in the face of shifting global trade dynamics. Experts emphasized that economies backed by strong domestic growth drivers are better placed to manage uncertainties, while export-dependent economies will rely heavily on available fiscal and monetary policy support.

The panel observed that global trade conditions remain fragile, with the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index at record highs and protectionist measures continuing to reshape supply chains.

Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist, CareEdge Ratings, remarked:
“APAC has stood out as one of the world’s most stable and consistent growth regions over the past few decades. Despite the current uncertain environment, several APAC economies still possess structural advantages—ranging from demographic depth and industrial adaptability to rising domestic demand, which positions them better to navigate the uncharted waters ahead. The imperative would be to leverage these structural fundamentals and strengthen long-term competitiveness.”

The panel noted that economies with large trade surpluses with the US and those closely tied to China face heightened risks, leading to potential volatility in current account balances. Exchange rate fluctuations also remain a key concern for trade- and capital-integrated economies.

Despite these risks, the APAC region maintains strong buffers. The services sector continues to provide resilience, while countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, and South Korea are moving into higher-value segments of electronics and semiconductor supply chains—signaling a shift from cost-driven to innovation-led manufacturing ecosystems.

From a credit perspective, APAC offers compelling long-term investment opportunities, supported by dynamic demographics, expanding consumer bases, and manageable debt levels in several economies. Large markets such as India and Indonesia benefit from rising per capita incomes and robust services exports, though India’s exposure to high US tariffs remains a concern. Experts highlighted that while India has scale advantages, sustaining investor confidence will require structural reforms beyond short-term policy measures.

The discussion featured insights from Mr. Ping Chew (Singapore-based global credit rating expert), Mr. John Beirne (Principal Economist, Asian Development Bank, Philippines), and Mr. Jeff Ng (Head of Asia Macro Strategy, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, Singapore). The session was moderated by Ms. Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist at CareEdge Ratings, with presentations by Mr. Kiran Kavala and Dr. Annie Mahajan.