Analysis - IIP report - May 2024 & CPI inflation - June 2024

IIP - May 2024

Highlights:

IIP growth came at a 7-month high of 5.9% in May.
Electricity output recorded a strong growth of 13.7% amid higher power demand due to heatwave conditions across the country.
Manufacturing output improved to 4.6% in May (Vs 3.9% in April).
Growth in infrastructure and construction goods moderated to 6.9% in May (Vs 8% in April).
Consumer durables output grew by an encouraging 12.3% in May (Vs 10% in April).
Consumer non-durables output grew by 2.3% following a contraction last month.
Though consumer goods segment exhibited an encouraging performance in May, a sustained and meaningful improvement in the overall consumption scenario remains the most critical monitorable in the months ahead.

CPI - June 2024

Highlights:

The CPI inflation rose to 5.1% in June from 4.8% in May, higher than market expectations.
Higher inflation in specific food categories, including vegetables, pulses and cereals remains a cause of concern.
High inflation in specific food categories, including vegetables and pulses, poses a risk of potentially broadening price pressures and destabilizing inflationary expectations.
Core inflation held steady at 3.1% and remained largely benign. Core inflation has consistently stayed below the 4% threshold for seven consecutive months.
Expectations of a normal monsoon improve the outlook of food inflation. However, it will be crucial to monitor its distribution and the progress Kharif sowing.
For FY25, we expect inflation to average 4.8%.