India’s growth forecast for fiscal 2021-22 was recently raised by Barclays to 8.5 per cent from the earlier 7 per cent. “The prospect of an effective vaccine in the near future and high seroprevalence of antibodies across the population support the case for a more durable economic recovery,” Barclays said in a note. India would return to normal faster than expected as the COVID-19 curve starts flattening.
The brokerage, however, revised down its gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for the current fiscal to minus 6.4 per cent from minus 6 per cent earlier. It expects GDP to fall by 8.5 per cent in the second quarter of the current fiscal, almost in line with the Indian central bank’s forecast.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) recently projected GDP to contract by 8.6 per cent in the July-September quarter. Barclays said it expects growth in GDP will resume in the third quarter of the current financial year, a quarter earlier than the RBI’s projection, according to Indian media reports.
