CAI MAINTAINS ITS COTTON CROP ESTIMATE FOR 2019-20 CROP YEAR AT 354.50 LAKH BALES

Cotton Association of India (CAI) has released its January estimate of the cotton crop for the season 2019-20 beginning from 1^st October 2019.  The CAI has retained its cotton crop estimate for 2019-20 at 354.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each i.e. at the same level as in the previous estimate. A statement containing the State-wise estimate of the cotton crop and the balance sheet as on 30^th September 2020 drawn by the Crop Committee of the CAI with the corresponding data for 2018-19 crop year is enclosed.

The total cotton supply estimated by the CAI during the months of October 2019 to January 2020 is 234.89 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each which consists of the arrivals of 192.89 lakh bales upto 31^st January 2020 (equivalent to 205 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each), imports of 10.00 lakh bales upto 31^st January  2020 and the opening stock at the beginning of the season which has been revised by the CAI from 23.50 lakh bales to 32 lakh bales based on the feedback received from the Trade sources and as per the discussions held at the meeting of CAI Crop Committee.

Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption during the months of October 2019 to January 2020 at 106 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (which is equivalent to 113 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) while the export shipment of cotton estimated by the CAI upto 31^st January 2020 is 20 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each. Stock at the end of January 2020 is estimated by the CAI at 108.89 lakh bales (equivalent to 115.70 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) including 38 lakh bales (equivalent to 40 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) with textile mills and remaining 70.89 lakh bales with CCI and others (MNCs, Traders, Ginners, etc.). Kapas has not been considered in the stock figures.

The yearly Balance Sheet projected by the CAI estimated total cotton supply till end of the cotton season i.e. upto 30^th September 2020 at 411.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each.  Total cotton supply consists of the Opening Stock at the beginning of the Season which the Committee has revised from 23.50 lakh bales to 32 lakh bales as per the feedback received from Trade sources and the discussions held in the meeting, crop for the season estimated at 354.50 lakh bales and imports estimated by the CAI at 25.00 lakh bales, which are lower by 7.00 lakh bales compared to the previous year’s estimate at 32.00 lakh bales.

Domestic consumption estimated by the CAI for the entire crop year i.e. upto 30^th September 2020 is 331 lakh bales i.e. at the same level as estimated by the Cotton Advisory Board at their meeting held on 28^th November 2019. The CAI has estimated exports for the season at 42 lakh bales i.e. at the same level as estimated in the previous year. The carryover stock estimated at the end of the season is 38.50 lakh bales i.e. higher by 8.50 lakh bales compared to that estimated earlier.

HIGHLIGHTS OF DELIBERATIONS HELD AT THE MEETING OF THE CROP COMMITTEE OF COTTON ASSOCIATION OF INDIA ON 3^RD FEBRUARY 2020

Crop Committee of Cotton Association of India (CAI) met on 3^rd February 2020. 10 members were present. Based on the data available from various trade sources, upcountry associations and other stakeholders, the Committee has arrived at its January estimate of the cotton crop for the 2019-20 season beginning on 1^st October 2019 and drew estimated cotton balance sheet.

The following are the highlights of deliberations held at the said meeting: –

1. The cotton crop estimate for the season 2019-20 is retained by the CAI at 354.50 lakh bales i.e. at the same level as estimated by it in the previous month and there are no changes in the state-wise crop figures estimated now compared to the previous month.
2. There is no change in the projection of cotton export for the season and the same is retained at 42 lakh bales as estimated by the CAI previously.
3. There is no change in the projection of import of cotton and the same is retained at 25 lakh bales as estimated by the CAI previously. The import figure is lower by 7.00 lakh bales compared to that estimated for the last year.
4. The yearly consumption is estimated by the CAI at 331 lakh bales i,e. same as estimated by the Cotton Advisory Board at its meeting held on 28^th November 2019.
5. Indian cotton arrivals during the months of October 2019 to January 2020 are estimated at 192.89 lakh bales. 
6. Shipment of imports from 1^st October 2019 to 31^st January 2020 which have reached Indian Ports are estimated at 10.00 lakh bales while balance 15 lakh bales are estimated to  arrive Indian Ports during the period from 1^st February 2020 to 30^th September 2020 (total imports estimated during the entire season are 25 lakh bales).
7. Cotton export shipments from 1st October 2019 to 31^st January 2020 which have already been shipped are estimated at 20 lakh bales while balance 22 lakh bales are expected to be shipped during the period from 1^st February 2020 to 30^th September 2020 (total exports estimated during the entire season are 42 lakh bales).
8. Consumption by Indian spinning mills for 4 months i.e. from 1^st October 2019 to 31^st January 2020 is estimated at 106 lakh bales.
9. Cotton stock held by mills in their godowns on 31^st January 2020 is estimated at 38 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each which is equivalent to 40.38  lakh running bales of 160 kgs, each. 
10. CCI, MNCs, Ginners and MCX are estimated to have stock of about 70.89 lakh bales as on 31^st January 2020 which is equal to about 75.32 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each (Mills are having stock of 45 days consumption).
11. Thus, total stock held by spinning mills and stockists on 31^st January 2020 is estimated at 108.89 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each which is equal to about 115.70 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each. (Raw cotton stock in CCI and Ginning Factories are not considered in this 115.70 lakh bales stock).
12. Closing stock as on 30^th September 2020 is estimated by the Committee at 38.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each.

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