Highlights:
- Lower nominal growth can result in minor fiscal deficit slippage, bringing it to 6% of GDP in FY24. FY25 fiscal deficit is seen at 5.3% of GDP.
- Direct tax collection in FY24 is projected to outperform indirect taxes.
- Higher than budgeted surplus transfers from the RBI and CPSE dividends to elevate non-tax revenue collections.
- Slow progress on divestment is expected to be covered by the better-than-budgeted performance of tax and non-tax revenues.
- We expect the government to raise its capex target in FY25.
- Gross borrowing in the Rs 15-15.25 trillion range is anticipated in FY25.
