The forecast for cotton production in India for the current season 2022–2023 has been lowered once further by the Cotton Association of India (CAI) to 298.35 lakh bales weighing 170 kg apiece. Last month, companies representing the weaving sector criticised CAI for decreasing production. According to CAI, its latest estimate is supported by the advice of a 25-member crop committee that has received urgent data from 11 state organisations.
After predictions for cotton production were revised downward, CAI anticipates an increase in cotton pricing to Rs. 75,000 every 356 kg of sweets. However, the downstream industry anticipates that cotton prices won’t increase significantly due to slower developed-world demand, particularly from the US and Europe—the two regions that buy the most clothing and other textiles. The trade organization’s production projection for the 2022–23 season has been lowered by 4.65 lakh bales to 298.35 lakh bales, according to CAI President Atul Ganatra. Maharashtra, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, and Odisha may each see a further 2 lakh, 0.5 lakh, and 0.15 lakh bale decrease in production. Other significant states’ output forecasts were not updated by CAI.
According to CAI, the committee members will closely monitor the arrivals and quantities of cotton presses in the upcoming months, and if any adjustments need to be made to the production estimate, they will be made in the ensuing reports.
In a research from March 2023, CAI predicted that 313 lakh bales of cotton would be produced. production of cotton was reported in the February and January 2023 reports, respectively, at 321 and 330 lakh bales. After numerous lower revisions, the production forecast for last year was ultimately set at 307 lakh bales.
The expected supply between October 2022 and April 2023, which comprises of 224.17 lakh arrivals, 7 lakh imports, and the opening stock of 31.89 lakh bales, is estimated at 263.06 lakh bales by CAI. The expected consumption was 179 lakh bales, while the estimated export shipments up to April 30, 2023, were 12 lakh bales. Stock is projected to be 72.06 lakh bales at the end of April 2023, with 52.06 lakh bales held by textile mills and the remaining 20 lakh bales held by the CCI, Maharashtra Federation, and others (MNCs, dealers, ginners, etc.). The expected total supply of cotton bales through the conclusion of the current season 2022–23 (October 2022–September 2023) is 345.24 lakh. It will be made up of a starting stock of 31.89 lakh bales, 298.35 lakh bales produced, and 15 lakh bales imported.
According to prior estimates, the domestic consumption for the season will be 311 lakh bales. The season’s exports are projected to total 20 lakh bales, which is 5,000 less bales than the prior projection. Estimated shipments for the previous year were 43 lakh bales. At 14.24 lakh bales, the carry-over stock is now thought to be.
