The dynamics of India’s exports are depicted in soft terms by recent data. Exports of goods have decreased in the past three of the last four months. The March contraction was sharp, coming in at a 13.9% year-over-year decrease.
A high base may contribute to the deterioration. Then, with help from falling global oil and other commodity prices, the price effect began to take effect. In fact, the former has caused a significant 45% year-over-year decline in oil exports, but take note that non-oil exports have also been declining. Furthermore, the decline in non-oil exports is broadly based, highlighting the instability of the exports narrative.
