CAI MAINTAINS ITS COTTON CROP ESTIMATE FOR 2018-19 SEASON AT 312 LAKH BALES

Cotton Association of India (CAI) has released its August estimate of the cotton crop for the ongoing season 2018-19 beginning from 1^st October 2018. CAI has retained its cotton crop estimate for 2018-19 at 312 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each i.e. at the same level as in the previous estimate. A statement containing the State-wise estimate of the cotton crop and the balance sheet as on 30^th September 2019 drawn by the Crop Committee of the CAI with the corresponding data for 2017-18 crop year is enclosed.

The CAI has maintained its cotton crop estimate for the Northern Zone at the same level as in its previous month’s estimate i.e. at 59 lakh bales. However, there is a reduction of 10000 bales in the cotton crop estimate for Punjab and an increase of 10000 bales in the cotton crop estimate for Lower Rajasthan.

Similarly, CAI has maintained cotton crop estimate for the Central Zone at the same level as in its previous month estimate i.e. at 180.68 lakh bales although there is an increase of 50000 bales in the cotton crop estimate for Gujarat State and a reduction of 25000 bales each in the cotton crop estimate of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. There is no change in the cotton crop estimates of the remaining states.

The total cotton supply estimated by the CAI during the period from October 2018 to August 2019 is 363.02 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each which consists of the arrivals of 307.02 lakh bales upto 31^st August 2019, imports of 23 lakh bales upto 31^st August 2019 and the opening stock estimated by the CAI at 33 lakh bales at the beginning of the season.

Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption during the months of October 2018 to August 2019 at 288.75 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each while the export shipment of cotton (excluding cotton waste) estimated by the CAI upto August  2019 is 43 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each.

Stock at the end of August 2019 is estimated by the CAI at 31.27 lakh bales including 17.55 lakh bales with textile mills and remaining 13.72 lakh bales with CCI and others (MNCs, Traders, Ginners, etc.).

The yearly Balance Sheet projected by the CAI estimated total cotton supply till end of the cotton season i.e. upto 30^th September 2019 at 374 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each which is lower by 2 lakh bales compared to the cotton supply estimated by the CAI in the previous month.

Cotton supply now estimated by the CAI upto 30^th September 2019 consists of the Opening Stock of 33 lakh bales at the beginning of the cotton season and imports estimated by the CAI at 29 lakh bales, which are lower by 2 lakh bales compared to the estimate of 31 lakh bales made in the previous month and higher by 14 lakh bales compared to the previous year’s estimate at 15 lakh bales.

CAI has lowered its import estimate for the season in view of actual shipments reaching Indian ports being lower than estimated previously.

Domestic consumption estimated by the CAI for the entire crop year i.e. upto 30^th September 2019 is 315 lakh bales while the CAI has estimated exports of cotton (excluding cotton waste) for the season at 44 lakh bales, which are lower by 2 lakh bales compared to the export estimate of 46 lakh bales made during last month and which is lower by 25 lakh bales compared to the previous year’s cotton exports estimate of 69 lakh bales.

Export of cotton waste was inadvertently included in the export estimate of the CAI made during last month.  This mistake has now been rectified and the export estimate has now been lowered by 2 lakh bales to arrive at the export estimate of only cotton (excluding cotton waste).  The carryover stock estimated at the end of the season is 15 lakh bales.

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COTTON ASSOCIATION OF INDIA
INDIAN COTTON CROP ESTIMATE FOR THE SEASON 2017-18 AND 2018-19
Estimated as on 31st August 2019
State									Arrivals As on                                         31st August 2019
	2018-19				2017-18				2018-19
			Total				Total		Total
	Pressed (in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each)	Loose  (in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each)	(in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each)	(in’000 Tons)	Pressed (in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each)	Loose  (in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each)	(in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each)	(in’000 Tons)	(in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each)	(in’000 Tons)
Punjab	6.15	2.50	8.65	147.05	6.50	2.50	9.00	153.00	8.30	141.10
Haryana	20.00	3.00	23.00	391.00	20.60	3.00	23.60	401.20	21.64	367.88
Upper Rajasthan	12.55	0.55	13.10	222.70	10.60	0.55	11.15	189.55	13.02	221.34
Lower Rajasthan	13.70	0.55	14.25	242.25	11.70	0.55	12.25	208.25	14.17	240.89
Total North Zone	52.40	6.60	59.00	1003.00	49.40	6.60	56.00	952.00	57.13	971.21
Gujarat	84.30	3.20	87.50	1487.50	101.80	3.20	105.00	1785.00	87.04	1479.68
Maharashtra	64.50	5.75	70.25	1194.25	77.25	5.75	83.00	1411.00	69.85	1187.45
Madhya Pradesh	22.23	0.70	22.93	389.81	20.80	0.70	21.50	365.50	22.48	382.16
Total Central Zone	171.03	9.65	180.68	3071.56	199.85	9.65	209.50	3561.50	179.37	3049.29
Telangana	34.90	0.60	35.50	603.50	50.90	0.60	51.50	875.50	35.14	597.38
Andhra Pradesh	6.10	5.90	12.00	204.00	12.60	5.90	18.50	314.50	11.69	198.73
Karnataka	14.40	1.10	15.50	263.50	17.65	1.10	18.75	318.75	14.87	252.79
Tamil Nadu	2.80	2.20	5.00	85.00	3.55	2.20	5.75	97.75	4.50	76.50
Total South Zone	58.20	9.80	68.00	1156.00	84.70	9.80	94.50	1606.50	66.20	1125.40
Orissa	3.27	0.05	3.32	56.44	3.95	0.05	4.00	68.00	3.32	56.44
Others	1.00	–	1.00	17.00	1.00	–	1.00	17.00	1.00	17.00
Grand Total	285.90	26.10	312.00	5304.00	338.90	26.10	365.00	6205.00	307.02	5219.34

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF DELIBERATIONS HELD AT THE MEETING OF THE CROP COMMITTEE OF COTTON ASSOCIATION OF INDIA ON 9^TH  SEPTEMBER 2019

Crop Committee of Cotton Association of India (CAI) met on 9^th September 2019. 14 members were present. Based on the data available from various trade sources, upcountry associations and other stakeholders, the Committee arrived at its August estimate of the cotton crop for the 2018-19 season beginning on 1^st October 2018 and drew estimated cotton balance sheet.

The following are the highlights of deliberations at the said meeting: –

1. The cotton crop estimate for the season 2018-19 is retained by the CAI at 312 lakh bales i.e. at the same level as estimated by it in the previous month although in the northern zone, there is a reduction of 10000 bales in the crop estimate of Punjab (8.65 lakh bales compared to the estimate of 8.75 lakh bales made in the previous  month) and there is an increase of 10000 bales in the cotton crop estimate of Upper Rajasthan (13.10 lakh bales compared to 13 lakh bales estimated during the last month. Similarly, in the central zone, there is an increase of 50000 bales in the cotton crop estimate for Gujarat state (87.50 lakh bales compared to 87 lakh bales estimated during last month) and reduction of 25000 bales each in the estimates for Maharashtra & Madhya Pradesh (70.25 lakh bales in Maharashtra compared to 70.50 lakh bales estimated during last month and 22.93 lakh bales in Madhya Pradesh compared to 23.18 lakh bales estimated during last month) There is no change in the cotton crop estimates of the remaining states.

1. There is a reduction of 2 lakh bales in the projection of cotton export for the season and the same is now estimated at 44 lakh bales compared to 46 lakh bales estimated by the CAI previously.  Export of cotton waste was inadvertently included in the estimate of cotton export made by the CAI during last month.  This mistake has now been rectified and the estimate of cotton export has been lowered by 2 lakh bales to arrive at the exports of only raw cotton excluding cotton waste.

1. There is a reduction of 2 lakh bales in the projection of import of cotton and the same is now estimated at 29 lakh bales compared to 31 lakh bales estimated by the CAI previously.  CAI has lowered its estimate of cotton imports for the season in view of actual import shipments reaching Indian ports till end of August 2019 being only 23 lakh bales, which are lower than estimated previously.

1. The yearly consumption estimated by the CAI is also retained at the same level as in the previous month i.e. at 315 lakh bales.

1. Indian cotton arrivals during the months of October 2018 to August 2019 are estimated at 307.02 lakh bales.  Around 98% of the total crop for the ongoing season has already arrived in the market.

1. Shipment of imports from 1^st October 2018 to 31^st August 2019 which have reached Indian Ports are estimated at 23 lakh bales while balance 6 lakh bales are estimated to  arrive Indian Ports in the month of September 2019 (total imports estimated during the entire season are 29 lakh bales).

1. Cotton export shipments of cotton (excluding cotton waste) from 1st October 2018 to 31^st August 2019 which have already been shipped are estimated at 43 lakh bales while balance 1 lakh bales are expected to be shipped in the month of September 2019 (total exports of cotton (excluding cotton waste) estimated during the entire season are 44 lakh bales).

1. Consumption by Indian spinning mills for 11 months i.e. from 1^st October 2018 to 31^st August 2019 is estimated at 288.75 lakh bales.

1. Cotton stock held by mills in their godowns on 31^st August 2019 is estimated at 17.55 lakh bales.

1. CCI, MNCs, Ginners and MCX are estimated to have stock of 13.72 lakh bales as on 31^st August 2019 which is equal to about 14.58 lakh running bales.

1. Thus, total stock held by spinning mills and stockists on 31^st August 2019 is estimated at 31.27 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each which is equal to about 33 lakh bales.

1. Due to small crop size and very tight cotton balance sheet, stock as on 30^th September 2019 is estimated by the Committee at 15 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each.